Rip Current and High Surf in Florida, November 13, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
621 AM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCT
AOA 3500 FEET AT THE E CST TERMINALS WITH SKC AT KAPF. SFC WILL
REMAIN NE AT KAPF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRAINAGE FLOW ALONG THE
E CST BECOMING NNE AROUND 8KT AFT 14-15Z BECOMING LIGHT DRAINAGE
AGAIN AFT 02-03Z THIS EVENING.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EST SAT NOV 13 2010/

..BUILDING SWELLS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF, STRONG
RIP CURRENTS, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, PRECIP SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY MON AND TUE...DUE
TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. STILL MAX
AFTERNOON TEMPS WL REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AMPLIFYING SOUTH AND MOVING EAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD
PUSHING A COLD FRONT DOWN THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS
AGREE ON TAKING MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD SLOWING DOWN THE FRONT AND LEAVING IT HANGING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA/LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY WED
EVENING. GFS, HOWEVER, SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST AROUND THE
BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH GIVING A SECOND PUSH TO THE COLD
FRONT AND FINALLY MOVING IT THROUGH AND SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. AGAIN...MOST OF THE GOOD DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...SO WL NOT
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ON
THE OTHER HAND COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER FROPA WITH MAX
TEMPS ONLY IN THE M/U 70S BY FRIDAY.

MARINE...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LARGE N-NE SWELLS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. LATEST OBS FROM BUOY 9 SHOWS A 6 FOOT SWELL AT 14 SEC WHILE
BUOY 10 SHOWS A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 10 TO 11 FOOTER AT 17 SEC.
THESE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS
BUOYS FURTHER NORTH SHOW SWELL HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 13 TO 16 FEET.
IN FACT WAVEWATCH HAS SWELL HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 16 FT AND 14 SEC AT
BUOY 10 LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON LOCAL CALCULATIONS THIS WILL
RESULT IN SWELL HEIGHTS AROUND 8 FEET AND WAVE PERIOD GREATER THAN
13-15 SEC AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH WATERS
LATER TODAY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS AND SHORTER PERIODS
FURTHER SOUTH. LOCALLY RUN SWAN SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER SWELL
HEIGHTS BUT BELIEVE THAT COULD BE EXPLAINED BY THE SWELL
INTERACTING WITH BOTH THE GULF STREAM AND DUE TO NEAR SHORE
PROCESSES. GIVEN THESE SWELL HEIGHTS, WE COULD SEE BREAKERS AS
LARGE AS 13 TO 14 FEET... ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. VERY ROUGH SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION SHOULD BE EXPECTED AS WELL AS VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT
THE ENTRANCE OF (AND NEAR) INLETS AND JETTIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD BEACHES WHERE A MOST DIRECT IMPACT IS
EXPECTED. THE SWELL SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE GRADUALLY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH MIN RH COULD FALL
TO AROUND 38-40% ACROSS NORTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID-WEEK COLD FRONT WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES WELL ABOVE
35% THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  61  79  64 / -  -  -  -
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  65  80  68 / -  -  -  -
MIAMI            79  64  80  66 / -  -  -  -
NAPLES           78  57  78  58 / -  -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
     COASTAL PALM BEACH.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS
     FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 AM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-140015-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
411 AM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES...
...STRONG RIP CURRENTS/BEACH EROSION THROUGH SUNDAY EAST COAST BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH COMBINED WITH A
LARGE NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION FOR
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT.

FLOODING: SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR ALONG THE
BEACHES OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY DURING HIGH TIDE. SOME PORTIONS OF A1A COULD
ALSO BE IMPACTED FROM THE COASTAL FLOODING ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE
HAS BEEN BEACH EROSION.

WAVES: SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL BE OVER 10 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERATING LARGE SWELLS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AND DECREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DIMINISH TODAY AND BE
IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EVEN THOUGH THE WIND WILL BE
DECREASING, THE LARGE SWELLS COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST
WIND WILL LEAD TO TREACHEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEAS IN EXCESS OF 10
FEET...HIGHEST OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
ON SUNDAY...SO SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED DURING THIS PERIOD. COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOME BEACH EROSION
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS EVEN POSSIBLE ALONG THE
PALM BEACH COAST, WHERE LARGE BREAKING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET
ARE EXPECTED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PALM BEACH
AND BROWARD BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
RIP CURRENTS, SIZE OF BREAKERS AND ANY COASTAL FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.