NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 12:43 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 17, 12:43 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
143 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST EARLY ON THURSDAY, TAKING THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
ON FRIDAY AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER OR NEAR OUR REGION
DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 1100 AM, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED SOUTHERN NJ AND
NORTHERN DE WITH SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER DEW POINT READINGS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES TODAY, EVEN AS SOME CIRRUS STREAMS OVERHEAD FROM THE
WEST. FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WE WILL CARRY A PARTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. LOWERED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
EVEN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, TODAY SHOULD BE RATHER WARM.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S,
WITH READINGS IN THE 80S UP NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SINK TO OUR SOUTH FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT. THE PATTERN WILL SPREAD RAIN UP INTO OUR REGION, MAINLY
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEING THE THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS VERY MOIST,
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAINFALL GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR REGION SHOULD BE RATER TIGHT AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE
POCONOS AND EXTREME NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MAY RECEIVE LITTLE RAIN
FROM THIS EVENT.
FOR NOW WE WILL SIMPLY MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALSO, BASED ON THE PATTERN WE HAVE
WORDED THE FORECAST AS RAIN AND NOT SHOWERS. WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW,
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN STABLE. HOWEVER, SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EXCEED
THE LOWER 80S.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PULL THE BOUNDARY OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN IN OUR REGION. SOME CLEARING IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WILL GET REINFORCED OVER THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DROP
INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY, INITIALLY, IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN
OUR VICINITY ON SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH SHOULD PULL THE FRONT THOUGH OUR
REGION AND OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE EXPECTED
SCENARIO, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY STALLED FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY DOWN THROUGH THE DELMARVA. BEHIND THIS FRONT, DRIER AIR HAS
WORKED INTO THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIMITED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET IS TOSSING SOME MID TO
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
DEEPER MOISTURE IS HELPING TO INITIATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE SHOWER/STORM THAT MAY HAVE BEEN HELPED BY A
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE IS NEAR KACY AS OF 1730Z. THEREFORE, WE USED A
VCSH FOR A LITTLE WHILE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF KACY AND KMIV, BUT
WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS HANGING ON, SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE FOR AWHILE THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE
STILL AT KACY AND KMIV, SOME STRATOCUMULUS WILL LINGER FOR AWHILE.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME DRYING ARRIVES EVEN HERE LATER, THEREFORE
WILL NOT FAVOR ANY FOG TONIGHT.
THE MID AND ESPECIALLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE A NORTHWESTERLY WIND UNDER 10 KNOTS
OCCURS INTO THIS EVENING, THE FLOW IS LIGHT ENOUGH WERE SOME LOCAL
WIND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST TO EVEN SOUTHEAST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SOME OF THIS IS OCCURRING AT KPHL AND KACY AS OF 1730Z. THE LATTER
IS MORE OF A SEA BREEZE FRONT DEVELOPING. MOST TERMINALS WILL HAVE A
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THEREFORE THE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND
PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN RAIN AREA, THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT THE
HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE REGARDING THE TIMING, THEREFORE WE CARRIED SOME LIGHT
RAIN FROM KPHL/KPNE SOUTH AND EAST STARTING AROUND MIDDAY. THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH /THIS WAS
INDICATED IN THE KPHL 30-HOUR TAF/. KTTN, KABE AND KRDG MAY NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN FROM THIS AND PROBABLY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY, SO WE DID NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION FOR NOW. A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIDING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING AN AREA OF RAIN TO THE AREA ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
KPHL. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY FOR KMIV AND
KACY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER THIS POTENTIAL
LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LOWERED CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE BETTER CONDITIONS PROBABLY AT KABE AND
KRDG. THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THURSDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE INTO OUR
AREA AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING IN
THE VICINITY. A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO A WEST/NORTHWEST
DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, THE FRONT
MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR OUR WATERS, THEREFORE THE WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY. GIVEN THE LIGHT FLOW, A SEA BREEZE TYPE
CIRCULATION MAY OCCUR ALLOWING WINDS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE TO TURN
MORE SOUTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE. A MORE NELY TO ELY DIRECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE
STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO BE NEAR OUR SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY, AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ATTM, IT APPEARS THAT SINCE THE LOW IS NOT ALL THAT
STRONG, CONDITIONS WILL NOT REACH SCA CRITERIA, DESPITE THE ONSHORE
FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY ACRS THE SOUTH. THERE
ARE, HOWEVER, SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
MAIN PRECIPITATION. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SETTLE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/NIERENBERG