Flood in Kansas, August 17, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. KRSL-KSLN ARE MOSTLY IN THE CLEAR...WITH RAINFALL EXITING
KICT-KHUT THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT KCNU THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR CIGS
COULD AFFECT KSLN-KHUT-KRSL THIS MORNING IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME. THE NAM SUGGESTS THESE IFR/LIFR CIGS LINGERING ALL DAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...GENERALLY WEST OF I-135. UNSURE IF THIS
IS CORRECT...AS THE NAM MAY BE OVERDOING THINGS. WILL NOT BITE AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ADK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY...THEN
ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS ON THU INTO FRI.

TODAY:
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS LED TO A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MOST OF THE
WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS WHERE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET HAS LEAD
TO A LARGE MODERATE RAIN SHIELD. EXPECT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS TO
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE STRAIGHT EAST TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
GETTING A GOOD SOAKING FOR THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
COULD SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN KS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES EAST THIS MORNING... AS BULK SHEAR AROUND 30KT AND MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS. WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SOME AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING...BUT PROGRESSIVE
NATURE WILL KEEP FLOODING THREAT RATHER LOW.

DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO MOVE MUCH TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD STORMS
AROUND.  COULD SEE A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA STAY IN THE UPPER 70S
FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT:
LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN ERN KS QUICKLY
MOVING INTO MO. THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT MOST OF THE
CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND RAINFALL EXPECTED
TODAY...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE
TURNPIKE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON WED.

WED-THU:
WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO RATHER SEASONAL TEMPS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

THU NIGHT-FRI:
NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO INCREASE THU NIGHT ACROSS CEN
KS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON FRI. SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES WHEN IT COMES TO TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS TO A SOLID CHANCE FOR CEN
KS AND SOUTH CEN KS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

COULD SEE SOME OF THE SHOWER CHANCES LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT...AS
REMNANT BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRI CONVECTION HANGS UP
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER.

REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FINE...WITH A WARM UP BACK INTO
THE UPPER 90S EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

KETCHAM

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AND MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST. OCCASIONAL LOW MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...THE ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  63  90  69 /  90  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      76  61  89  66 /  80  10   0   0
NEWTON          76  61  90  67 /  90  10   0   0
ELDORADO        78  63  90  67 /  90  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  63  90  67 /  90  10   0   0
RUSSELL         75  57  89  67 /  50  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      75  57  89  67 /  50  10   0   0
SALINA          74  61  89  69 /  80  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  61  89  68 /  90  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  64  93  69 /  70  40   0   0
CHANUTE         83  63  92  69 /  70  40   0   0
IOLA            82  64  91  69 /  70  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    84  63  93  70 /  70  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
546 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-181100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
546 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME STREET FLOODING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FOR THIS EVENING INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES
WILL VARY GREATLY FROM AROUND A MILE TO OVER 6 MILES.

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...WHERE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 104 ARE LIKELY IN MOST AREAS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KETCHAM