High Wind in Colorado, April 1, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1121 AM MDT THU APR 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
230 AM MDT THU APR 1 2010

VERY STRONG 500 JET OF 70-90 KTS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND LOW 80S IN THE MCCOOK AND HILL CITY AREAS
TODAY WILL FALL ABOUT 25 DEGREES FRIDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
WEST TO MID 50S EAST FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO
THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

VERY STRONG WINDS FROM THE 500 JET WILL MIX TO THE SFC RESULTING
IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES OF 10 TO 15
PERCENT. AS A RESULT...WILL UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY
FOR ALL BUT RED WILLOW COUNTY NEBRASKA...DECATUR AND NORTON
COUNTIES OF KANSAS. UPDATES WILL SURELY BE NEEDED BY DAY SHIFT AS
THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LOOK GOOD. NAM WOULD SUGGEST PRECIP ENDS FRIDAY BUT GFS AND SREF
SUGGEST LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT
FORECAST WHICH MATCHES UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. REMAINDER OF
FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DRY.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES MADE.

07
&&

.AVIATION...
1121 AM MDT THU APR 1 2010
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
REACH 35-45 KNOTS BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS MAKING THE
SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

KJ
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-
     002-013>016-027>029-041-042.

NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-
     080.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
400 AM MDT THU APR 1 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
400 AM MDT THU APR 1 2010 /500 AM CDT THU APR 1 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT THROUGH 8 PM MDT FOR
THE TRI-STATE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...HIGHEST WEST OF A BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE
LINE. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
INTO THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE CREATING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.

ALONG WITH A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OR DIRT...ESPECIALLY OVER
OPEN AND RECENTLY PLOWED FIELDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.