Wildfire in California, July 26 to 31, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
911 AM PDT MON JUL 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MAINLY DRY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ELSEWHERE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO UPDATES EXPECTED TO CURRENT FORECAST THIS MORNING. VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE SIERRA WITH WET
THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST...HOWEVER WE
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY HAVE
DROPPED 3 TO 7 DEGREES AND CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK.
CONTINUED COOLING IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS WELL. UPPER TROUGH IS
STARTING TO OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTH ONSHORE INTO NRN CA AND WILL
INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW AS THE MARINE LAYER IS AROUND 2300 FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM PDT MON JUL 26 2010/

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPED OVER THE SRN SIERRA EARLY
THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS TROF IS THE REMNANT OF AN OLD CUTOFF
OUT NEAR 130W THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS EJECTING TROF WILL MOVE THRU
CENTRAL CA TODAY. THE TROF WILL BEGIN TO SHUT DOWN TSTM ACTIVITY
BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS DRY SLOT PASSES THRU.

THEN OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY
TO MOVE NORTHWEST OUT OF SE CA. HOWEVER...A MEAN TROF POSITION IS
FCST TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG OR JUST INSIDE 130W THRU THE WEEK.
THIS KEEPS THE FLOW WEAKLY S-SW OVER THE SIERRA. TSTM PARAMETERS
ARE WEAK TO NON EXISTENT...AND WILL LEAVE THE SIERRA DRY EXCEPT
FOR AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR THE CREST FAVORED AREAS OF FRESNO AND
TULARE COUNTIES TUES AFTN. BY THE WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND THE EURO
BRING AN INCREASING SW FLOW TO THE REGION WHICH WILL COMPLETELY
DRY OUT THE REGION.

TEMPS EVERYWHERE OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMS...WITH NO LARGE SCALE FEATURES SEEN IN THE MODELS.
DAY TO DAY CHANGES WILL BE MINIMAL WITH NO APPRECIABLE WARMING OR
COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SIERRA CREST
UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY.  OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON MONDAY JULY 26 2010... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...TLM

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
453 AM PDT MON JUL 26 2010

CAZ096-097-271230-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
453 AM PDT MON JUL 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA TODAY. THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE SIERRA CREST IN FRESNO AND
TULARE COUNTIES...AND MAY SPREAD INTO YOSEMITE PARK. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

BOATERS...HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THREATENING
SKIES...AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY UPON SEEING LIGHTNING OR
HEARING THUNDER. REMEMBER ALSO THAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CAN OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AND END BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD