High Wind in California, January 13 to 14, 2010

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
352 PM PST WED JAN 13 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH DANGEROUS GUSTS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH CANYON PASSES. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND GUSTY WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED. SHOWERS MAY AFFECT SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD TO THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY. A LONG DURATION RAIN
EVENT IS LIKELY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...A BROAD...DRIER NW FLOW WAS FILTERING INTO
THE DISTRICT THIS AFTERNOON...AND SKIES HAVE TURNED PARTY CLOUDY IN
MOST AREAS. THE NW FLOW WILL INCREASE THRU THIS EVENING...WITH
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE THE
SBA/VTU/L.A. COUNTY MTNS INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...AND THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. AS A RESULT A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...WIND ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT
FOR THE SBA S COAST...THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY.
PLEASE SEE LAXNPWLOX FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS
AND WIND ADVISORIES. WITH THE NORTH FLOW...THERE WILL BE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS ON THE NORTH MOUNTAIN SLOPES TONIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR SNOW SHOWER. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR IN ALL AREAS THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE COAST TONIGHT THEN MOVE INTO
SRN CA THU THRU FRI. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA
FRI NIGHT...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SRN CA ON
SAT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THU THRU FRI NIGHT. A
WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF ON SAT MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES...OTHERWISE GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE DISTRICT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES AGAIN. GUSTY NE CANYON WINDS WILL
DEVELOP BELOW AND THRU THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF VTU/L.A.
COUNTIES...AND ADDITIONAL WIND ADVISORIES APPEAR LIKELY. THERE WILL
BE LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS WELL FOR
VTU/L.A. COUNTIES BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ALTHO SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART THRU FRI...THERE
WILL BE SOME HI CLOUDS MOVING IN AT TIMES. MAINLY MID AND HI LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF FOR SAT WILL MOVE
IN...RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A WHOLE OVER THE REGION.
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR THU AND FRI...WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL
IN ALL AREAS BY FRI...THEN TURN COOLER AND BACK TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR SAT.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT OVER THE E PAC AND INTO THE W COAST DURING
THE PERIOD. THE JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO SAG FURTHER S AND DRIVE
SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SUN NIGHT AND MON.
IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN BY TUE...WITH A STRONGER
STORM TUE NIGHT INTO WED. TIMING OF EACH STORM IS NOT IN SYNC
BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS...BUT THE IDEA OF SEVERAL STORMS MOVING IN
NEXT WEEK IS CONSISTENT WITH EACH MODEL. THE 12Z GFS SHOWED A
POWERFUL 200 KT JET OVER THE CENTRAL PAC ON TUE WITH PW VALUES JUST
OVER AN INCH MOVING INTO SRN CA. BY WED...THE GFS IS FORECASTING
VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH 50 KT DOWN TO
ABOUT 900 MB. THIS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND HI OMEGAS WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. HAVE
OPTED TO HAVE LIKELY POPS ON DAY 7 (WED) FOR SLO/SBA COUNTIES AND
CHANCE POPS FURTHER S. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN NEXT WEEK (POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 3-6 INCHES
COAST/VLYS...6-12 INCHES FOOTHILLS/MTNS)...BUT THE SPEED AND TIMING
OF EACH SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS
HAS ALREADY HAPPENED WITH THE 18Z GFS AS THE WED SYSTEM WAS
FORECASTED TO SLOWER THAN THE 12Z RUN. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE
STORMS FOR NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE ON THE FINER
DETAILS OF EACH STORM SYSTEM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED
WHICH PROVIDES FURTHER DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING STORMY PERIOD...
PLEASE SEE LAXSPSLOX.

&&

.AVIATION...13/2352Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS...EXCEPT FOR KPRB. AT KPRB...VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD
SPREAD INTO THE TERMINAL AS EARLY AS 06Z...BUT MORE LIKELY BETWEEN
08Z AND 12Z. VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 17Z
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AT KSBP...KSMX...KSBA...KVNY...AND
KBUR...WITH A CHANCE OF SIMILAR WIND ISSUES AT KLAX.

KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST
CROSS WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 02Z THIS EVENING...BUT IT COULD BE AS
LATE AS 0330Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE TURBULENCE SHOULD BE EXPECTED ON
APPROACH AND TAKEOFF THROUGH 11Z TONIGHT BETWEEN 900 FEET AND 3000
FEET. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STRONG TURBULENCE AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 04Z AND 10Z TONIGHT.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE
THROUGH 11Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX)

&&

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...HALL
SYNOPSIS...MEIER/SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
547 PM PST WED JAN 13 2010

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-141400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
547 PM PST WED JAN 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TONIGHT

IT WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS AT THE BEACHES TONIGHT WITH DANGEROUSLY
HIGH SURF AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS. A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION
AS TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

IT WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS AT THE BEACHES THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUSLY
HIGH SURF AND POWERFUL RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH POSSIBILITY OF
COASTAL FLOODING. DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING THROUGH THE LOS ANGELES COUNTY
VALLEYS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT. SEVERAL STRONG STORMS WITH POSSIBLE
HEAVY RAIN WILL ARRIVE OVER THE AREA FROM SUNDAY ON.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL