Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, May 13, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
309 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
RELATIVELY SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS APPROACHING NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
FOLLOWING A SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY GRADIENT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR
FORT SMITH...TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

AFTER THIS COMPLEX MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE BIG BEND REGION...AND ENHANCES CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD...AS THE SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH REACHES THE
CWA...AND WITH TOGETHER WITH SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARIES...BECOME A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE PESKY FRONTAL BNDRY
THAT WILL HAMPER OUR WEATHER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
WEAK UPR WAVE WILL EMERGE FROM THE SW CONUS ON SUN AND TRUDGE EWD
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. IN SPITE OF THE LACK OF ENERGY
ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE...IT WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPR
MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS DUE TO A WEAKNESS/SERN DISPLACEMENT OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS UPR LOW WILL PICK UP THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT AND GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE MONDAY LOOKING ON TRACK. SEASONAL AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FROPA WITH RETURN FLOW AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. UPR RIDGING STILL LOOKS TO BEGIN BUILDING IN
BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  75  59  76 /  30  40  40  50
CAMDEN AR         65  85  64  83 /  20  30  30  30
HARRISON AR       57  71  57  72 /  60  60  50  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  79  62  79 /  30  40  40  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  80  63  80 /  30  40  40  40
MONTICELLO AR     68  87  65  84 /  20  30  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      62  77  61  78 /  40  50  40  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  72  57  73 /  50  50  40  60
NEWPORT AR        65  77  61  78 /  30  40  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     67  84  64  83 /  20  30  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  75  60  76 /  50  50  50  50
SEARCY AR         64  78  61  78 /  30  40  40  50
STUTTGART AR      67  82  64  81 /  20  30  30  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...55 / LONG TERM...63

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
320 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
320 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND
DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD ARKANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY STALL
OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...STRETCHING NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
DEVELOPING OVER FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...WITH
HIGH WINDS...LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ALSO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DECREASE.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS FURTHER SOUTH. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. ON FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO ARKANSAS AND
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST RESULTING IN SEVERAL DAYS OF CLOUDS AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
WHICH WILL FOCUS RAINFALL ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...AND COULD
BECOME HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF ARKANSAS. THE THREAT OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
LOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT MAY DRIFT OUT OF ARKANSAS
ON MONDAY...AND BRING SOME DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO THE STATE.
SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN MAY PERSIST A BIT MORE THAN
ANTICIPATED. DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER A
LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
356 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

ARZ003>005-012-013-021>023-132140-
BAXTER-BOONE-JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-VAN BUREN-
356 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAXTER...BOONE...JOHNSON...
MARION...NEWTON...POPE...SEARCY AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES UNTIL 440 PM
CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PYATT TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT JOE TO 17 MILES EAST OF DEVILS KNOB...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE YELLVILLE...MARSHALL...FLIPPIN...
BULL SHOALS STATE PARK...LAKEVIEW...GASSVILLE AND LOWER BUFFALO
WILDERNESS AREA.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN.

BJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
444 PM CDT THU MAY 13 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     HAIL             4 SW MOUNTAIN HOME      36.29N 92.43W
05/13/2010  E0.25 INCH       BAXTER             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL WAS FALLING BETWEEN MOUNTAIN HOME AND
            GASSVILLE.

&&

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