Hail and Damaging Wind in Arkansas, May 10, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
926 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS OVER WRN AND NWRN AR LATE THIS
EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE WRN CWA BORDER.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED. CONTINUE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON STORMS OVER NW AND WRN PORTIONS OF AR AS SOME
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SVR AS THEY PUSH EAST. HOWEVER...THE
FURTHER EAST THEY MOVE...THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS...AND
SEVERITY LIKELY TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

AVIATION...
BY LATE AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE HAVE LIFTED. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS STILL LINGERED
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

OVERNIGHT...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE THAT CLEARED OUT
TODAY...WILL BECOME OVERCAST AGAIN TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AROUND THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PARTIAL CLEARING
CAN BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
LOCAL RADARS INDICATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSRA...AFFECTING NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...IN A
REGION OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE STATE BY 23Z.

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL LIFE NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT....AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS APPROACHES
FROM THE EAST. END RESULT WILL BE A STALLED BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
PERIOD STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ARKANSAS. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FIRMLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. RIDGE WILL CREATE SOME DIFFICULT IN NAILING DOWN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT.

GFS PUSHES THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE STATE WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT POPS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  80  64  85 /  30  20  30  20
CAMDEN AR         68  87  66  89 /  10  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       54  80  62  82 /  70  30  30  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  84  66  86 /  30  10  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  84  67  87 /  20  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     67  87  68  89 /  10  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      67  82  66  85 /  40  10  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  53  82  62  83 /  60  30  30  30
NEWPORT AR        60  81  66  87 /  30  20  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     67  86  68  88 /  10  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  81  65  85 /  40  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         62  81  66  86 /  20  20  20  20
STUTTGART AR      64  84  68  88 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
900 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI THROUGH THIS EVENING...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BUILD INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH TORNADOES CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONT TO THE WEST WILL STALL AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

LATE IN THE WEEK...IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...RESULTING IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS AROUND THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...AND COULD
BECOME HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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