Strong Wind in Arkansas, March 25, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1204 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

.AVIATION...
LOW END MVFR CIGS...ALONG WITH ISOLD TSRA...WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA THROUGH 21Z...THEN WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010/

AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY BE SEEN...WITH PATCHES OF VFR AND
ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN...SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SHOWERS
WILL BE SEEN OVER SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL START SOUTH 5 TO 12
KNOTS THEN GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF THE
STATE. PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT TO EAST ARKANSAS...PRETTY
MUCH IN LINE WITH MODELS. LIMITED THUNDER TO EASTERN ZONES...WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH STRONG WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE. LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MID
MORNING THROUGH SUNSET...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE DELTA
REGION AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TEMPORARILY OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE
SLOWING THE NEXT SYSTEM DOWN...SIMILAR TO THE LAST. BACKED UP POPS
TO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER OVERNIGHT FROPA...KEEPING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW ONCE AGAIN. QPF REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KEPT
LINGERING POPS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY
ALONG EASTERN ARKANSAS DUE TO THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE ECMWF
AND NAM. TEMPS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD ON THE COOL SIDE DUE TO THE
RECENT RAIN...BUT WILL CLIMB NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS HAVING PUSHED EAST OF AR...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN...MAINLY IN EASTERN AR ARE IN THE
FORECAST. SOME TIMING ISSUED WITH ECMWF AND GFS...WITH GFS CLEARING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP MUCH FASTER THAN ECMWF. WITH LATER MODELS RUNS
PRECIP MAY BE PULLED EARLIER SUNDAY. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER. RETURN FLOW BEGINS SETTING UP ON WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
OVERALL TEMPS START AROUND NORMAL VALUES...THEN A WARMING TREND
TOWARD MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     57  39  57  44 /  70  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         62  43  63  46 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       55  35  60  43 /  80  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    60  40  61  46 /  40  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  42  59  45 /  60  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     63  44  60  45 /  30  10   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      58  39  62  47 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  56  35  59  43 /  80  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        61  40  56  45 /  70  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     62  43  58  45 /  30  10   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   57  39  60  45 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         63  41  57  45 /  60  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      65  43  57  45 /  50  10   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
850 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-260945-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
850 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL HEAD INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SHOWERS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD...AND THERE WILL BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...ONLY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. IN FACT...THERE MAY BE SUNSHINE AT TIMES...AND THIS WILL
CREATE SOME WARMING AND WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE TRIGGERED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

IT APPEARS STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONT EXITS THE
STATE TO THE EAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN ARKANSAS.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL HEAD THROUGH KANSAS ON SATURDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE INTENSE INITIALLY...AND WILL CREATE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN ARKANSAS. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
LATE IN THE DAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WHILE SOME WARMING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AND THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE
FROM BECOMING OVERLY UNSTABLE. GIVEN THIS...STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.

THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE
FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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