Thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flash flooding in the Bagdad area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain and flash flooding in the Bagdad area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 17, 9:55 AM MST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 955 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL LOWER BUT NOT END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. && .DISCUSSION... THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. GFS MODELS DOES SHOW A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM YAVAPAI THROUGH COCONINO COUNTIES THIS EVENING. WE DO SEE SOME ROTATION IN THE CLOUD FIELD NEAR DATELAND AZ THIS MORNING. WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF YAVAPAI AND MOST OF COCONINO COUNTY VALID 10 AM THROUGH 10 PM. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT ARE ON THEIR WAY. PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE CENTERED OVER TX AND A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH S-SE FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES DIRECTING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATER TODAY AND WILL ADD SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY TODAY IN TERMS OF DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL CONSIDER ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATER THIS MORNING PENDING OUR 12Z SOUNDING MOISTURE PROFILE. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING DIME-NICKEL SIZE HAIL...BUT AS MENTIONED... THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLASH FLOODING. MORE OF THE SAME FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AND EVEN PERHAPS A SMALL UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL RATES AS MODEL PROGS SHOW PW VALUES PEAKING FOR THE WEEK DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT WITH THAT ASIDE... WILL CONTINUE POPS ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT ABOVE CLIMO. A SUBTLE DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE BORDER AND DEEP LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. ALTHOUGH THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL NOT COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...POPS AND DIURNAL COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME WILL BE CLOSER TO CLIMO. THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW AND THE SUBTROP RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED AGAIN OVER NM AND TX. THIS WILL MEAN A RETURN TO THE MOIST DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER AZ AND POPS GOING BACK ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SAT-MON PERIOD. NP && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR WITH ISOLD IFR IN THE STRONGER CELLS. STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER 03Z...THOUGH A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC.................DL AVIATION...............JJ VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 955 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2010 AZZ004>018-037>040-180715- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 955 AM MST TUE AUG 17 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT UPDATED 955 AM...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF YAVAPAI AND MOST OF COCONINO COUNTY TODAY FROM 10 AM UNTIL 10 PM. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THREATS TODAY ARE LOCAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING ON INCH PER HOUR AND OR SMALL HAIL. THIS EVENING...FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE NORTHWARD FROM YAVAPAI THROUGH COCONINO COUNTIES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLE FOR THIS AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AGAIN. ON THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOWERING BUT NOT ENDING THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RETURN FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 187 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:13 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An observer in Bagdad reported 1.45 inches of rain in 45 minutes.
Heavy rain caused flash flooding across Highway 97 at Skunk Creek (MP 158) and Boulder Creek (MP 163).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 258530, 258520.