Winter Storm in Wisconsin, March 10 to 11, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...WELL DEFINED SFC INVERTED TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED
NORTHWARD INTO CWA FROM BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN KS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SPLIT FLOW IN WESTERLIES WELL DEPICTED ON
LATEST RUC80 50H AND ANIMATED WV IMAGERY. SRN BRANCH HAS IMPORTED
SIGNIFICANT PWS NORTHWARD INTO CTRL PLAINS. MOST OF THAT HAS BEEN
FEEDING ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED ACROSS CORN BELT WITH 55/60KT
LLJ ALONG/EAST OF FRONTAL ZONE. 30H JET MAXIMUM HAS ALLOWED
EXPANSION OF UVV/PRECIP ACROSS MID MS VALLEY. NRN BRANCH OF
WESTERLIES AMPLIFYING AS ADVERTISED OVER NRN ROCKIES WITH POOL 0F
-40C WITHIN THERMAL TROF AT 5OH ACROSS NRN MONTANA. BAROCLINIC
LEAF DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN WY/MT IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS.

TODAY/WEDNESDAY...AREA OF ENHANCED PRECIP ACROSS MIDWEST SHOULD
DECREASE AS UVV MAX ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET PULLS EAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW ROOM FOR PROGRESSION OF MAIN FRONTOGENESIS ZONE ON
FORWARD FLANK OF NRN BRANCH UPPER TROF. AS HT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH NRN BRANCH TROF PUSHES EAST... MORE ORGANIZED CYCLOGENESIS
STILL APPEARS LIKELY OVER CTRL PLAINS. MDLS TRENDING DOWN ON
MAGNITUDE OF QPF. MDL AVG ABOUT .4 TO .7 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMNTS
ADVERTISED BY HI- RES WRF OUTPUT. STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF MDT/HVY
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH VERY GOOD OMEGA WITHIN DGZ THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SPEED OF SYSTEM AND LOWER QPF MAY ARGUE FOR LOWERING
AMOUNTS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN LATE MORNING ZFP/GRID
UPDATE. AM RELUCTANT TO MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES AT THIS POINT DUE
TO SEVERAL REASONS. INCREASED SLR SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS LAST HALF
OF FAVORED DGZ/OMEGA BULLSEYE..SHIFTING FROM CLIMO 14:1 TO CLOSER
TO 18/20:1. A COUPLED JET PATTERN EMERGES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
ERN CWA WITH SRN BRANCH LEFT EXIT REGION SUGGESTING 130/14O KTS.
STORM SHOULD EXPLODE TONIGHT AS IT MOVES EAST OF REGION AND
DESPITE LOWERING QPF...SIGNIFICANT WIND WILL PUSH SNOW CONSIDERABLY.
A VERY DEEP LAYER MSTR PROFILE WITH INCURSION OF ARCTIC AIR SHOULD
MAKE VERY GOOD USE OF AVAILABLE PWS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
WITH SNOW/BS THROUGH 18Z ERN HALF OF CWA WHILE WRN HALF STARTS TO
IMPROVE.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

STRONG 1045 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSING INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY DESPITE VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...AS WINDS BACK
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL PUSH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. 850-700 RH VALUES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 06
UTC THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD ALSO SHUT OFF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS.
A COLD NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IS IN STORE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THOSE SEEN IN THE
DEPARTING WINTER STORM...THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM WITH THE CORE
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT WIND CHILL
READINGS IN THE -25 TO -40 RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...AND A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN WEAKENS A BIT BUT REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN REMAIN DRY...KEEPING PRECIP
NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE.
HAVE CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND...30S ON
SATURDAY...AND EVEN A FEW LOW 40S SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS TO THE NORTHLAND ON TUES AFTERNOON. EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND -FZRA/-SN WILL PRECEDE THE HEAVY
SNOW...BEFORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND WILL TURN ALL
PRECIPITATION TO SNOW BY TUESDAY MID MORNING IN MINNESOTA TAF
SITES...AND BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT KHYR. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE IN HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  -2   9 -11 / 100 100  20  10
INL  16  -7   2 -19 / 100 100  30  10
BRD  26  -3   7 -13 / 100 100  10  10
HYR  34   4  13 -15 / 100 100  20  10
ASX  32   6  11 -14 / 100 100  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN
     COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-PINE-SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-SOUTHERN
     LAKE/LAKESHORE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-CROW WING-KOOCHICHING-
     NORTHERN AITKIN-NORTHERN CASS-NORTHERN ITASCA-NORTHERN ST.
     LOUIS-SOUTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KOOCHICHING.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ASHLAND-BAYFIELD-BURNETT-DOUGLAS-IRON-SAWYER-
     WASHBURN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR PRICE.

CANNON/DONOFRIO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
507 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-111030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
507 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING OVER
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINE WITH LINGERING SNOW TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHLAND. TRAVEL WILL
BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT...PERSISTING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ARCTIC AIR WILL COVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DURING THE MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILL
VALUES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES MAY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SNOWFALL SPOTTERS ARE REMINDED TO REPORT THEIR SNOWFALL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY PHONE OR E-SPOTTER.

CANNON

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
745 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     SNOW             WIRT                    47.73N 93.96W
03/10/2009  M6.4 INCH        ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL FOR MARCH 9

&&

TLONKA