High Wind in Washington, November 5, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
252 PM PST THU NOV  5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
TONIGHT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT
LOW SNOW LEVELS WITH SNOW IN THE CASCADES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF DRIER BREAK SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WET
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND MONDAY. COOL SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW PASS LEVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BRINGING HIGH
WINDS TO THE COAST OREGON COAST AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES INLAND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT AFTER 9 PM. RAIN WIIL HEAVY AT TIMES NEAR THE FRONT SO WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR  PONDING OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY
IN URBAN AREAS WHERE LEAVES MAY HAVE CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD WATCH FOR FOR SUCH CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

THE SECOND BIG IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH PLUMMETTING SNOW LEVELS. BY FRIDAY MORNING...SNOW
LEVEL WILL HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FT WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THROUGH SAT...AND THEN DROP A BIT MORE SAT NIGHT. WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE 850 MB FLOW...2 TO 3 FT OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ROCKEY/RUTHFORD.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY...LIKELY DRYING THE DISTRICT OUT SUNDAY EVENING
AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO OFFSHORE TROUGH. MAY SEE A
FEW ISOLD SHOWERS LEFT IN THE NRN CASCADES DURING THIS TIME THOUGH.
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST MON MORNING AND ALLOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWS BRISK SURFACE WINDS
WITH THIS FRONT AND WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID GALES
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA ALONG
THE BEACHES. ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...SNOW LEVELS
WILL FALL TO AROUND 3500 FT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THU. A FEW
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME SO WE SHOULD
SEE DECENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CASCADES TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
DALTON

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT...THEN MVFR IN SHOWERS. INLAND...MVFR DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AS RAIN INCREASES AND MVFR CONTINUING WITH THE SHOWERS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SHOWERS ALL AREAS.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z AS RAIN INCREASES. MVFR
IN SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONT BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING WITH WINDS EASING BEHIND THE FRONT. A DEEP LOW
AND LONG FETCH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS RESULT IN A TRAIN OF
LARGE SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT...PEAKING IN THE 25 TO 30 FT RANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT. SWELL WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN HIGH
AND WINDS LIKELY TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS THE WEATHER
REMAINS UNSETTLED. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IN EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA/OR...GALE WARNING FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE
 THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY SOUTH WASHINGTON...NORTH AND CENTRAL
 OREGON COAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR IN EFFECT
 THROUGH FRIDAY.
MINOR TIDAL OVER FLOW UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
 WASHINGTON COAST.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON
 COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH AND
 CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES.

&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
348 AM PST THU NOV 5 2009

PZZ250-255-270-275-061200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
348 AM PST THU NOV 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND INLAND EARLY THIS EVENING. GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 45 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEST SWELL FROM A STRONG STORM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY. EXPECT WEST SWELL BETWEEN 25 TO 30 FT ON
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO NEAR 20 FT ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ001-002-PZZ210-WAZ021-061200-
NORTH OREGON COAST-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-COLUMBIA RIVER BAR-
SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-
348 AM PST THU NOV 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON...NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON COASTAL WATERS
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FOLLOWING WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...
 HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE OREGON COAST.
 COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ON SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.
 HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE OREGON COAST FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE SOUTH WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH
EXPECTED AFTER 2 PM TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL ON OREGON
HEADLANDS AND OPEN BEACHES.

IN ADDITION...INCREASING SEAS...COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDES...WILL
CREATE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTH
WASHINGTON COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXPECT WEST SWELL OF 25 TO 28 FEET TO CONTINUE ROLLING INTO THE
COASTAL SURF ZONE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME BEACH EROSION AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO THE WAVES AND HIGH TIDES MAY OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND AND OR WIND CAUSED DAMAGE ARE ENCOURAGED
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

ORZ011-013-WAZ019-061200-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-
348 AM PST THU NOV 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF WELL ABOVE THE CASCADE PASSES
TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CASCADES. BY FRIDAY MORNING...
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS LOW AS SOME OF THE CASCADE
PASSES. WITH COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEHIND THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS LOW AS 3000 TO 4000 FEET IN ELEVATION.

POTENTIAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THE
PASSES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ABOVE THE PASSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TODAY.

ORZ003>010-012-014-WAZ020-022-023-039-040-061200-
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
WILLAPA HILLS-I-5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-
GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
348 AM PST THU NOV 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE NEEDED TODAY.