Winter Weather in Vermont, March 9, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
151 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
AND BE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN WEAKEN AND REDEVELOP SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
LATER MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST OUT TO SEA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 906 PM EDT SUNDAY...FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH JUST
SOME MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED FOR ONSET OF PRECIP AND TEMPS. CURRENT
RADAR INDICATES PRECIP SHEILD ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING GREAT
LAKES SURF LOW...APPROACHING ROCHESTER NY. PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EAST REACHING NY ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...SOUTHERN VT BY 2
AM...CENTRAL VT BY 3AM...AND NORTHERN VT BY 4AM. COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH NOTICABLE LOWER DP TEMPS IN THE
TEENS/20S ACRSS THE REGION. 00Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED WBZ HEIGHT
OF 3K...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO NORTH OVER OUR CWA...COLUMN
WILL COOL AND SUPPORT ALL SNOW AT THE ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM. ONLY
CONCERN AFT 10Z WITH SOUTHERLY 850MB WAA ADVECTION IS FOR SOME
SLEET TO MIX IN. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS REALLY CLOSE WITH 850MB TEMPS
FORECASTED AROUND -1 TO -2C...BUT MODEL BIAS IS TYPICALLY TO COLD
IN THESE SITUATIONS. EITHER WAY IT SHOULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACRS NY AND WESTERN VT. PWATS AT
KBUF ARE AROUND .9...SO THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE SHOULD SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. IF DEEPER MOISTURE COMES JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH...SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS
CHITTENDEN...WASHINGTON CTY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW PRECIP SHEILD
EVOLVES TONIGHT. OVERALL MESSY COMMUTE TOMOROW MORNING...SO GIVE
YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 455 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK
STATE AROUND DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...WITH AREAS IN THE
ADVISORY...POSSIBLY SEEING SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW
EARLY...BUT EXPECTING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
TO CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW AS THE THE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK
STATE WEAKENS AND REDEVELOPS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER MONDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING AROUND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
ADVISORY AREA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MODEL SHOW WARMER AIR ALOFT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD TO
BECOME QUIETER/COOLER BY WEEKS END AS POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITS
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. FRONTAL SYSTEM IN PROCESS OF CROSSING
AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD PCPN TO
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST INCLUDING VT/NRN NY. MILDER THERMAL PROFILES
WOULD SUGGEST MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE CHVLY
WESTWARD INTO THE DACKS/SLV...WITH AREAS ACROSS ERN VT SEEING MIX OR
A TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN. MEAN PLACEMENT OF SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHWEST AND P-GRAD MAGNITUDE WILL LIKELY ENSURE MUCH OF THE PCPN
IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE UNDER WITH BLUSTERY/BREEZY SOUTH FLOW.

OUTSIDE A FEW LINGERING SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WED NIGHT...MAINLY
CLR/PC CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM SC CANADA/GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES TO EASE
BACK TO SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS BASED OFF
ENSEMBLE 925/850 MB TEMP PROFILES. THEREAFTER...ADDL PUSH OF
MODIFIED CP AIR THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURNED CHC OF SHSN...ESP NORTH/NRN MTNS. THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD BY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW MID-MARCH SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES THOUGH WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDS THRU 08Z MON WILL DROP DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR AS PRECIP LIFTS NE WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SOME WARM AIR IN SPOTS MAY ALLOW SOME PRECIP TO BEGIN AS A RA/SN
MIX...BUT ALL SITES WILL SEE -SN BY 09Z-10Z MON. VSBY WILL RANGE
FROM 3-5SM W/ PERIODS OF 1/2SM TO 2SM AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW
BURSTS. BY 18Z-19Z...EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO LIFT FROM
NEAR IFR/LIFR UP TO MVFR AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO MV AWAY FROM REGION.
VSBY WILL BEGIN TO INCR AND REMAIN AROUND 4-6SM IN -SW...IFR
CEILINGS WILL INCR AS A RESULT AS WELL TO NEAR MVFR THRU 00Z TUES.
AFTWARDS CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR WITH LINGERING
-SW AND CEILINGS DOWN TO BKN020-025 AT TIMES. WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM ENE TO ESE 5-15KTS...BUT BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFT 00Z TUES AS
SFC RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION FROM THE NW AND WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
DOWN TO NEAR LGT/VAR THRU 06Z TUES. HIR TRRN OBSCD.

06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MON NITE/TUES...MAINLY VFR.
TUES NITE/WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/MXD PCPN CHANGING TO RAIN.
WED NITE THRU FRI...MAINLY VFR W/SCT MVFR IN MTN SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 455 PM EDT SUNDAY...SOME LOCAL AREAS OF ICE JAMS ON THE
AUSABLE RIVER ARE STILL OCCURING. NO LARGE CHANGES OVER THE PAST 6
HRS...BUT THE JAM STILL EXISTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND
ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF ICE JAM
FLOODING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VTZ009>012-018-019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ029-030-034-035-087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...RJS/JN
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
424 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

NYZ029-030-034-035-087-VTZ009>012-018-019-092030-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
424 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY SNOWFALL REPORTS AND ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BURLINGTON.

NYZ026>028-031-VTZ001>008-016-017-092030-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN CLINTON-GRAND ISLE-WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
424 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK...CENTRAL
VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT AND NORTHWEST VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL LIKELY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY ANY SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON.

WGH