High Surf in Hawaii, March 9 to 10, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST MON MAR 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRAG EASTWARD AND CLEARING
THE ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NEW HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHWEST
OF THE STATE WILL SUPPLY THE ISLANDS WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BULK OF THE LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO EASE OUT OF
THE BIG ISLAND WITH THE BACK EDGE OF THE LAYERED CLOUD FIELD NOW
LOCATED ALONG THE ISLAND/S EASTERN SHORES. HENCE...THE WINTER
ADVISORY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS WILL DROPPED SHORTLY OR BY 6 AM
TODAY.THE CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL STILL BE WITH US TODAY...THANKS TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM.

THE DEPARTURE OF THE MIDDLE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW AMPLE SUNSHINE TO SEEP
THROUGH THE THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS...AMPLE MOISTURE
AND HEATING...IN A UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE BIG ISLAND CAN EXPECT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
DITTO THIS FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS PARTICULARLY KAUAI AND OAHU.

THE WEATHER OVER KAUAI WAS UNSETTLED PART OF SUNDAY EVENING. THE
RAIN FROM THE HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SPILL DOWN THE
HANALEI RIVER AND SUBSEQUENTLY CLOSED THE HANALEI BRIDGE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER THE WINDWARD WATERS OF OAHU AND
KAUAI.

THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER ACROSS THE ISLAND/S
WINDWARD WATERS...OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS ARE SLATED TO BE
LIGHTER OVER THE THE ISLANDS. THIS IS DUE IN PART OF A SURFACE OR
LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE KAUAI CHANNEL THIS MORNING.

HOWEVER... THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WHERE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WE CAN EXPECT THE TRADES TO PICKUP.

THE GFS MODEL BRINGS DOWN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PARENT LOW ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SUPPORTS THE LOW FURTHER EAST. NEVER THE
LESS...A FRONTAL FEATURE OR SHEAR LINE IS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. WITH THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...THE WIND
GRIDS REFLECTS A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT SATURDAY INSTEAD
OF A WEST DIRECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.

SURF-WISE...THE SWELL DATA FROM BUOY 51001 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SUGGEST THE HIGHEST THE SURF WILL GET TO IS 14 FEET ON
OAHU/S NORTH SHORE. SO WE WILL BE MONITORING THE BUOY DATA
CLOSELY...WHETHER AN ADVISORY IS NECESSARY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

H LAU