Wildfire in Oregon, July 26 to 31, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
247 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY
NEAR PULLMAN IN SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. THIS LOW IS CONTINUING TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS NOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING IN THE NORTHERN
OREGON BLUES AND THE SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON BLUES...UNION AND WALLOWA
COUNTIES IN OREGON AND NEAR DAYTON IN THE WASHINGTON BLUE MOUNTAIN
FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AT BEST
THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLUMBIA
BASIN...THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS AND
OVER THE SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON. A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY FORM OVER THE WASHINGTON CASCADE EAST SLOPE ZONES
AS WELL. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY OR JUST AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE BLUES AND
WALLOWA COUNTY OVERNIGHT DUE TO NORTH UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES TO EAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT OVER MOST AREAS MONDAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY CAUSE A STRAY UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OREGON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A NORTH FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD
SUBSIDENCE TO CAP ANY ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WILL ALSO SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB AT
MOST LOCATIONS MONDAY...WITH TEMPS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL WARM THE QUICKEST. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
100 DEGREES WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD MONDAY IN THE GORGE. THESE HOT
TEMPS WILL THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND
THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS STARTING TUESDAY. HAVE ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS STARTING AT THE STATED TIMES. 90

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A LARGE-SCALE BUT NARROW RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THROUGH ABOUT EARLY FRIDAY GFS/ECMWF
ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT RESULTING IN HOT AND DRY WEATHER. FOR LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE GFS BRINGS THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS
THE LOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH A CONTINUED HOT AND DRY PATTERN. THE GFS
IS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH TIME...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
HOT SPELL WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BUT BUMPED
UP TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT...PUSHING 100 DEGREES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT AND THE
LOW REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE...THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
MINIMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 78

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POPPING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT WEAK AND RATHER
DISORGANIZED DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WILL CARRY
A VCSH AND CB GROUP AT KALW AND A CB GROUP AT KPDT FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE JUST A FEW EVENING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT. SOME MODERATELY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING AT KPDT...KRDM...KDLS BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  64  95  67  99 /  20  10   0   0
ALW  68  95  71 100 /  20  10   0   0
PSC  65  99  67 103 /  20   0   0   0
YKM  63  98  65 101 /  20   0   0   0
HRI  63  98  65 102 /  20   0   0   0
ELN  65  99  66 101 /  20   0   0   0
RDM  54  96  56  99 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  56  92  57  95 /  30  10  10   0
GCD  55  94  57  97 /  10   0   0   0
DLS  69 102  70 105 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ044.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ORZ041.

WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
     WAZ026>028.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR WAZ024.

&&

THREAT INDEX
MONDAY : GREEN
TUESDAY : GREEN
WEDNESDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

90/78/78

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
303 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2009

ORZ041>044-049-050-501>506-WAZ024-026>030-501-502-271430-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-
CENTRAL OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-
WALLOWA COUNTY-FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-KITTITAS VALLEY-
YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
303 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 2009

UPDATED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, FOOTHILLS
     OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS,
     LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA
     COUNTY, FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON,
     OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY,
     NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

EXCESSIVE HEAT MONDAY
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN COLUMBIA
     RIVER GORGE OF OREGON

EXCESSIVE HEAT TUESDAY
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON

EXCESSIVE HEAT WEDNESDAY
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON

EXCESSIVE HEAT THURSDAY
     EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS VALLEY,
     YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON, EASTERN
     COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF OREGON, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON

A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE
BUILDING HEAT. TEMPERATURES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WILL
EXCEED 100F MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON MANY LOWER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL REACH 100-105 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THURSDAY FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHEAST OREGON. PLEASE REFER TO PDXNPWPDT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON A VERY LIMITED BASIS THIS EVENING.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.