Lightning Strike in North Carolina, May 15, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
209 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN
CROSS THE OHIO AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SATURDAY. THE FRONT
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT IN THE NC MTNS. A COUPLE COCORAHS
SITES REPORTED AROUND 4 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR THE ASHEVILLE
AIRPORT...WITH THE AIRPORT ITSELF SEEING OVER 3 INCHES. THE PATTERN
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR SLOW MOVING STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. THE STORMS FORMED AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVED INTO THE
MTNS. THIS SAME SHORT WAVE REMAINS OVER THE MTNS AS IS EVIDENCED BY
CLOUD SWIRL JUST EAST OF BOONE. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT TO THE NE
DURING THE DAY. THE 12 UTC FFC SOUNDINGS HAS CAPE VALUES OF OVER
2000 J/KG WHEN MODIFIED FOR A DEWPOINT OF 68 AND A SFC TEMP OF 79.
THE SOUNDING HAS A LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...BUT NOT MUCH. THE
NAM ALSO HAS A WEAK SFC BNDRY OVER THE UPSTATE TDA WHICH LIFTS
SLOWLY N THIS EVENING. THE TRUE COLD FRONT IS UP OVER NRN VA/WV AND
WILL PLAY NO ROLE IN OUR WEATHER.

IF THE RUC IS RIGHT IN DRIFTING THE SHORT WAVE UP INTO RNK/S
FA...THEN COVERAGE MIGHT NOT BE AS GREAT AS THE 50/60 PERCENT POPS
WE HAVE NOW. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE NOT STRONGLY CAPPED
AND THAT THE AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH A GOOD POOL OF COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...I THINK THAT AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IS STILL A GOOD BET DESPITE
THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS GREATEST
WHERE STORMS TEND TO ANCHOR...WHICH WILL BE OVER THE MTNS AND WRN
FOOTHILLS...AND ALONG THE EVENTUAL LATE DAY LOCATION OF THE WEAK
BNDRY ADVERTISED BY THE NAM. WE ALREADY HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MENTIONED IN THE HWO IN THE MTNS. I/LL ADD HEAVY RAIN WORDING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE FA. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WON/T BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TODAY OWING TO THE MOIST MID LEVELS
AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF THE CAPE WILL
SUPPORT A COUPLE DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND BORDERLINE HAIL EVENTS.
I/LL INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME SCT ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THE
EXISTENCE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SKY COVER WILL ALSO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOP OF FOG DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE FOG WILL REDUCE
VIS TO 1/2SM OR LESS...I WILL KEEP MENTION AS PATCHY FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE U50S
ACROSS THE MTNS TO LOW TO MID 60S EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY SAT
MRNG AND APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY IN THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME H85
MOISTURE SURGES OUT OF THE GULF OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
IN FROM THE NW. CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS INCREASES TO LIKELY ACRS
CWA BY SAT AFTN. EVEN WITH CLOUDY SKIES WARM S FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO WARM TO AROUND 80 SAT AFTN...WITH 70S MTNS. LIKELY POPS
CONT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO CWA SAT NIGHT-SUN WITH BAND OF
CONVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND SFC BOUNDARY IN AREA OF H5 DPVA AND
WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW. HIGH TEMPS SUN SHOULD BE 5-10 DEG COOLER
BEHIND FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS A BIT FASTER AND BEST FORCING MOVES
E SUN NIGHT-MON BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVG THRU
UPPER FLOW WITH INCREASED LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING...ESP
ACROSS S CWA...SO EXPECT DECREASING POPS FROM THE NW. WITH COOL HI
PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE NE LOOK FOR HIGHS MON IN THE M60S WITH
U50S-L60S MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN MODELS FOR MED RANGE REMAINS
FAIRLY LOW BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
AREA AS SFC HIGH CONT TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NE TO E THRU MID WEEK.
TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE L-M70S TUE...NEAR AVG WED. SFC HIGH MOVES OFF
THE E COAST THU WHICH PUTS AREA IN BETTER S FLOW WITH TEMPS
INCREASING A COUPLE MORE DEG. A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL INCICATED
ON THE ECMWF SOMEWHERE OFF THE SE COAST...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MOVE IT ACROSS FL INTO THE NE GULF WED NIGHT-THU. SINCE MODEL
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE REGARDING THIS FEATURE...PLAN NO
CHANGES TO WED-THU ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. RIGHT NOW THEY ARE JUST NORTH OF KGMU AND
KGSP...JUST NW OF KCLT AND A LITTLE FARTHER W OF KAVL. KAND AND KHKY
WILL BE OK THE NEXT HOURS...BUT ANY OTHER SITE COULD SEE A
THUNDERSTORM. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL LAST A WAYS
INTO THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY PAST MIDNIGHT. WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS AND RAIN AT OR NEAR MANY TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE A GOOD BET AGAIN TONIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WON/T BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...AND I/VE KEPT
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT/S LOW END MVFR CIGS AND ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG.
IF CIGS AND VSBYS DO GO DOWN...THEY WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE LOWER
THAN WHAT I HAVE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
TOMORROW...WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND LOW CIGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS
THEREAFTER...THOUGH MOISTURE MAY NOT BE TOO FAR OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE STALLING FRONT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1126 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-161530-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1126 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AS
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STATIONARY OR VERY SLOW MOVING. A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
MICROBURST OR LARGE HAIL REPORT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-161530-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1126 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STATIONARY OR VERY SLOW MOVING. A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE AFTER DARK THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
MICROBURST OR LARGE HAIL REPORT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
112 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-151915-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
112 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...

AT 1 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND DISSIPATING RAPIDLY...
AND INDICATING VERY SLOW MOVEMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS SOME LOCATIONS COULD PICK
UP 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LANE