A lightning strike caused a fire during the early morning hours of May 15 as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms moved across northeast Missouri. Heavy rains of over 2 inches in a few hours caused Sand Hill Branch Creek to flood out of its banks during the early afternoon of May 15.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
A lightning strike caused a fire during the early morning hours of May 15 as several rounds of showers and thunderstorms moved across northeast Missouri. Heavy rains of over 2 inches in a few hours caused Sand Hill Branch Creek to flood out of its banks during the early afternoon of May 15.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 2:29 AM CST, 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI...AND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS
THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. 40KT+
LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED CONVECTION ON THE NOSE OF THE JET NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
AS CONVECTION REACHES EASTERN IOWA...IT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING INTO
THE RIDGE...MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND THEREFORE
DIMINISHING. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SHORT WAVE OF GREAT INTEREST
SPANNING NEBRASKA AND MOVING QUICKLY EAST. ..33..
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
INITIAL CONCERN IS EVOLUTION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING.
CURRENT ROUND OF ONGOING WAA PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT FIGHTS THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH
INCREASING DESTABILIZATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES...DEW POINTS AND TEMPS INCREASE...AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET SHIFTS OVERHEAD. POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IS
ONCE AGAIN GREATEST OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA NEARER THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS ARE MAXIMIZED.
POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND CLOUD DEBRIS. POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE KEY FOR
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AND FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR DESTABILIZATION CAREFULLY TO RESOLVE THE FINER DETAILS OF
THE THREAT LATER THIS MORNING.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES
WITH STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION PUSHING PRECIPITABLE WATERS
TO NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 18Z. AREAS MOST FAVORED FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY JUST RECEIVED 1+ INCHES WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM.
CURRENT 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN 2 INCHES NEARLY
EVERYWHERE AND RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL ONLY LOWER FFG EVEN MORE
BY THE TIME THE MAIN EVENT OCCURS LATER TODAY. ..33..
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO IA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA
BY 12Z SATURDAY. DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY. STRONG CAA
DURING THE DAY WILL SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE MIXING SO KEPT HIGHS
WELL BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM U50S N TO MID 60S SOUTH. FROST
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. IN FACT HAVE EXPANDED
THE PATCHY FROST IN THE GRIDS TO AREAS N OF I80. VERY DRY AIR IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH SHOULD BE OVER
CENTRAL IA BY 12 SUNDAY. LIGHT N WINDS EAST OF THE HIGH AND
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U20S TO AROUND 30 SHOULD HELP TEMPS
COOL WELL INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. AREAS N OF I80 SHOULD SEE
MINS IN THE MID 30S WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FROST. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE REGION. KEPT HIGHS SUNDAY CLOSE TO THE COOLER MAV
GUIDANCE WITH LIGHT WINDS LIMITING THE MIXING DEPTH. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY STRONGER SLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS TO AROUND
70 FOR MONDAY AND WELL INTO THE 70S TUESDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO MIDWEEK...NO CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME TO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS NOW COME IN LINE
WITH THE ECMWF...BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
THE GOING FORECAST HAS POPS IN FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWFA...BUT WINDS/TEMPS...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY...WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED FOR THE FROPA BY LATER SHIFTS...IF THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE
TO HOLD ON TO THIS SOLUTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z BRINGING
AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SHIFTING THE WIND FROM SOUTH TO
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY. ..33..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING EXCEPT DUBUQUE...
DELAWARE...AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 342 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-152045- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 342 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY IOWA TO STERLING ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. THERE IS ALSO A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY IOWA TO FREEPORT ILLINOIS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS FURTHER NORTH IN EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY...COOL WEATHER AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER VALLEY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHEETS
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 171 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:01 UTC.
1 lightning, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A lightning strike is being blamed for starting a fire at the Arbela 4-Corners tavern about 2.5 miles north northeast of Arbela, MO around 4 am May 15. Damage was reported to be extensive.
Heavy rains of over 2 inches in a few hours caused Sand Hill Branch Creek to flood out of its banks during the early afternoon of May 15.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2009Every state in 2009This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2009
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 173286, 170195.