Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 12, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.  AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AGAIN AND DISSIPATES TO START THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK...EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH ISOLATED SVR STORMS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE EAST ACRS THE PIEDMONT INTO EARLY EVENING WITHIN PLUME OF
MODERATE CAPE...AS PER THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS. OTHERWISE...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY FIRED DEEP CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO THREATEN THE CWFA UNTIL THE BLYR STABILIZES LATE IN THE EVENING.
AS SFC BNDRY SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...PATTERN CERTAINLY
DOES NOT PROHIBIT MCS ACTIVITY FROM THREATENING THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND/OR SATURDAY MORNING...BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE...THE ONLY OBVIOUS
CLUSTER OFF TO OUR WEST...IS PROGGED TO SLIP BY AND WEAKEN OFF TO
OUR SW. OTHERWISE...JUST A MIX OF VARIABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
SOME DEGREE OF LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS REMAIN
MILD. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEAN PATTERN FOR SATURDAY AS MODERATE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. SUBTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE E-W ORIENTED
BNDRY WILL LINGER IN OR NEAR THE FA AS SCATTERED DIURNALLY FIRED
TSTMS THREATEN THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY...WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND FALLING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR AFTN CONVECTION. UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE WILL IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY AND 500 MB FLOW WILL RAMP UP
TO AROUND 40 KT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY KEEP
THE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS
ABOVE MOS VALUES WILL BE ADVERTISED SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY. A DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY WILL
INTERACT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ALLOW SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN SW SECTIONS NEARER
THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN WRN NC. THERE IS ALSO
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND TRACK SE ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE TOWARD THE SW CWA LATE IN THE DAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH UNDER THE NOSE OF SFC HIGH PRES
TUESDAY...WITH LOWER CHC POPS INDICATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIMILARITIES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF IN MID WEEK...THE DIFFERENCES BECOME MUCH GREATER
LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE EC HAS BEEN FAVORED AS ITS SOLUTION IS MORE
SENSIBLE.  BOTH MODELS SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND RIDGING DOWN ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE A COOLER NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.  THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE.  THE DIFFERENCES BECOME
QUITE SIGNIFICANT BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE EC
BUILDS THE SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGE WITH TROFINESS REMAINING OVER THE
NORTHEAST.  A STRONG NORTHERN SHORTWAVE WAS AGREED ON BETWEEN THE
00Z EC AND 06Z GFS WITH THE AXIS PASSING ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  THE FAVORED EC MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A UPPER TROUGH INTO THE EAST REPLACING THE WEAK
RIDGE ON FRIDAY.  THIS WILL COME LATER...BUT THE GFS MOVES IT TOO
FAST.  THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT WHICH COULD ARRIVE AT THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST AND LEE
TROUGH CONVERGENCE IS BETTER. TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...AND WILL END CB CHANCES AT TERMINALS LATER IN THE EVENING.
WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING INTO THE FA AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTH SOME MVFR CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS BEFORE WINDS RESUME A WESTERLY COMPONENT LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS REDEVELOP.

AT KCLT...AS TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES WEST OF THE TERMINAL THRU
MID-AFTERNOON...RUC DATA IS PROGGING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS SWEEPING
ACRS THE FIELD SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL KEEP FCST OF VCTS/CB
STARTING AT 20Z UNTIL TIMING CAN BE REFINED. INSTABILITY SHOULD THEN
WANE THIS EVENING WITH JUST DEBRIS CLOUDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WSW AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SWITCH
TO NW IN THE WAKE OF TSTMS BY EARLY EVENING. SHALLOW LLVL MOISTURE
INCREASES ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT...BUT LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT
IS UNCERTAIN...SO WILL JUST CARRY SCT MVFR CLOUD LAYER DURING THE
PREDAWN BEFORE CU REDEVELOPS LATER SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MVFR VSBY/PERHAPS CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING. CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-131930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA IS LOCATIONS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1210 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW SMYRNA             35.07N 81.45W
06/11/2009                   CHEROKEE           SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 5 IN KINGS CREEK COMMUNITY.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
314 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

SCZ007-008-121945-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-
314 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN SPARTANBURG AND SOUTHERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COWPENS...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  THICKETTY...SARATT...PACOLET MILLS...GAFFNEY AND COWPENS.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

NCZ069-070-121945-
GASTON-LINCOLN-
319 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LINCOLN AND NORTHERN GASTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHERRYVILLE...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLNTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STANLEY...
  RANLO...MCADENVILLE...LOWELL...LINCOLNTON...IRON STATION...HIGH
  SHOALS...DALLAS...CROUSE...CHERRYVILLE AND BOGER CITY.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
321 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

SCZ019-121945-
GREENWOOD-
321 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL GREENWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF NINETY SIX...OR 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GREENWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NINETY
  SIX...GREENWOOD...DYSON AND CORONACA.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

NCZ069>071-122100-
GASTON-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-
355 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GASTON...MECKLENBURG AND
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES EAST OF
LOWESVILLE TO DALLAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-77 AT
  I-85...MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...UNC
  CHARLOTTE...STANLEY...RANLO...PAW CREEK...MOUNT HOLLY...
  MCADENVILLE...LUCIA...LOWESVILLE...LOWELL...HUNTERSVILLE...
  GASTONIA...DALLAS...CROFT...CRAMERTON AND BELMONT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

NCZ070-071-122115-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
429 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHEASTERN
GASTON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 426 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF
I-77 AT I-85 TO BELMONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO I-77 AT
  I-85...CAROWINDS...MOUNTAIN ISLAND LAKE...CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...
  SOUTHPARK MALL...EASTLAND MALL...UNC CHARLOTTE...RANLO...
  PINEVILLE...PAW CREEK...MOUNT HOLLY...MINT HILL...MCADENVILLE...
  LOWELL...CROFT...CRAMERTON AND BELMONT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

RB