Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, July 28, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND STRONG BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT
IN WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK...ENHANCING
CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA THIS
MORNING...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE PIEDMONT
REGION OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA. ALOFT...LATEST WV IMAGERY AND
RUC MODEL DATA SHOWED AN EXITING ELONGATED H5 SHEAR AXIS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED OVER LOWER MS VALLEY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A CHALLENGING FORECAST AT HAND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE H5 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE...WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT
SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO PLAY A
ROLE IN REDUCING CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE NMM WRF MODEL SHOWING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY/COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NC...FIRING ALONG THE CONVERGENT TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NC
MOUNTAINS. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH TEMPS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 90S SHOULD STILL ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1000-2000
J/KG...CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. DUE TO THE LACK OF
VERTICAL FORCING ALOFT AND WEAKER BULK SHEAR(ONLY 10 TO 15KTS)...
SVR POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW THIS AFTERNOON.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST AS THE THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AR/LA/MS
LIFTS NORTHEAST...BRUSHING NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. NONE
OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TN
VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT...TOO SLOW WITH THE EASTERN TRANSLATION. THE
RUC BRINGS AN MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER WAVE INTO MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN 21 TO 00Z...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS INCREASING TO
NEAR 2.0 AND STRONG INSTABILITY OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
THROUGH 06Z. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
WHERE BEST UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED...WITH LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEEP MOIST SWLY FLOW...THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING FROM TRAINING
CELLS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ADD THIS THREAT.
LOWS TONIGHT MUGGY IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...A BROAD ZONE OF WARM AND DEEP MOIST AIR ADVECTION
WILL SPREAD EAST OVER CENTRAL NC ON WEDNESDAY...EAST OF THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER LINGERING WIDESPREAD LOW/MID CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH TONIGHTS CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED S/W MAY SERIOUSLY
IMPEDE DESTABILIZATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN FACT BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW MARGINALLY INSTABILITY (500 TO 800 JOULES)ACROSS
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY OF 1000 TO 1500 JOULES PRIMARILY ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. THE LATEST 12Z SPC WRF SHOWS THE MOST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN AS WELL...LIKELY DEVELOPING
ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY APT TO FORM FROM THE MORNING
CLOUDINESS. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR TOMORROW...WITH SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS BY HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD IN THE EAST. SAME DILEMMA
MANIFESTS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS...WITH THERE LIKELY BEING A SHARP
CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S NW TO NEAR 90 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

UPPER AIR PATTERN DURING THIS PERIODS FEATURES AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. A
DEEP SW FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. ATMOS REMAINS MOST AND PRIMED FOR CONVECTION ON THURSDAY
AND POPS WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

EXPECT LOW TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS WITH LOWS IN
THE 69 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 88 TO
92 DEGREE RANGE. -BLAES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

PERSISTENT UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURING AN ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THAT
ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH. FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE W GREAT
LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
APPALACHIANS. COLD FRONT REACHES THE MTNS FRI MORNING AND THEN
STALLS AS IT DROPS INTO NORTHERN NC. COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND RETREATS
N ON SAT AND SUN. THE NEXT AND EVEN MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPS
INTO THE W GREAT LAKES ON MON WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS
SLOWLY SE INTO THE APPALACHIANS ON TUES AND WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL
POSITION LINES UP WITH UPPER FLOW AND THE FRONT MAY DRIFT S INTO
VA/NC.

OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTS RELATIVELY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WILL FOCUS CHC OF CONVECTION ON FRI INTO SAT AND AGAIN ON MON OR
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE WILL TEMPER DIURNAL RANGE AND MAXES TO A NEAR
SEASONABLE RANGE.  -BLAES/KH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFT/EVE HOURS.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION...NO THUNDER WILL BE INCLUDED
AT ANY TERMINAL SITE.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TENNESSEE WILL
SPREAD OVER EAST OVER WESTERN NC LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z TO
09Z...ESPECIALLY AT KINT AND KGSO TAF SITES. A DENSE CANOPY
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OVERNIGHT.

A BROAD ZONE OF WARM AND DEEP MOIST AIR ADVECTION EAST OF AN MID
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE VFR...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD TO SCT AFT/EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1246 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-291700-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1246 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-084-291700-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
RICHMOND-
1246 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS...AND FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AND URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
506 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

NCZ083-084-282200-
ANSON-RICHMOND-
506 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS RICHMOND AND ANSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 503 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF WHITE STORE TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF
MCFARLAN TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DIGGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE MORVEN... MCFARLAN...
DIGGS... ROCKINGHAM... HAMLET... AND DOBBINS HEIGHTS.

GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS.

MWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
515 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

NCZ075-084-086-282215-
HOKE-MOORE-RICHMOND-
515 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN RICHMOND...
MOORE... AND NORTHERN HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM...

AT 514 PM...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FOXFIRE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE PINEBLUFF... SOUTHERN
PINES... TAYLORTOWN... PINEHURST... ABERDEEN... WHISPERING PINES...
AND ASHLEY HEIGHTS.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH... PEA SIZE HAIL... BRIEF VERY HEAVY
RAIN... AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

GIH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
528 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

NCZ075>077-086-282230-
HARNETT-HOKE-LEE-MOORE-
528 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS LEE...HARNETT...MOORE AND
HOKE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM...

AT 527 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SOUTHERN PINES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE WHISPERING PINES...
ABERDEEN... VASS... CAMERON... LEMON SPRINGS... AND PINEVIEW.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN... HAIL OF A HALF INCH
IN DIAMETER... AND DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE
TREE LIMBS.

GIH