Flash Flooding in New Mexico, June 28, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2009

MADE A FEW CORRECTIONS THROUGHOUT PRIMARY DISCUSSION.

.DISCUSSION...
15Z SURFACE HAND ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG COLD FRONT INVADED THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT LAST NIGHT. THIS FEATURE PUSHED INTO NE ARIZONA
AND STALLED BETWEEN SILVER CITY AND EL PASO. BY THIS AFTERNOON...A
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPED NEAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH ALLOWED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO FIRE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO
THE NRN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW SHOULD SHOVE
THESE STORMS TO THE EAST. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING A DECENT MOISTURE
PLUME CONTINUING ALONG A LINE FROM TUCSON TO GRANTS TO CLAYTON. THE
LATEST AMSU/SSMI SATELLITE ESTIMATES NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELD IN THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. EFFICIENT
RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW NATURE OF THESE STORMS...LEADING TO
A THREAT OF MINOR FLOODING IN FAVORED LOCALES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVES PCPN CHANCES.
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO THE WEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT SHOT FOR PCPN IN THE RIO GRANDE. OPTED
TO GO ABOVE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THIS REGION BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A FAIRLY STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL DEVELOP LEE OF THE CENTRAL MTS AND TRACK TO THE E/SE. DIFFICULT
TO DEPICT THIS FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR ATTM...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
AIDED BY THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH QPF VALUES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL CONTINUE
TREND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ZFP AND HWO. ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. FAIRLY THICK CLOUD COVER
COUPLED WITH MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LIMIT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ASPECT TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.

MODELS SUGGEST THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
TOMORROW AS A WESTWARD PROPAGATING TROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL
MEXICO. UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...
WHICH SHOULD ULTIMATELY CHOKE OFF THE MOISTURE PLUME. THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE CWFA SHOULD EXPERIENCE A REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND THE SRN/SE
COUNTIES. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS IN A S/SE DIRECTION. UPPER
HIGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUE. NLY FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP...SHIFTING THE PCPN FOCUS TO SRN NM WITH A RECYCLE MODE IN
THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. STATEWIDE RECYCLE MODE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH CENTROID MOVES SLOWLY
TO THE E/SE. MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE CENTERED ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH...GENERALLY FROM SRN CA INTO CENTRAL AZ. DPORTER

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWER OR TSTM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MOUNTAIN TOPS MAY BE OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURED. SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTM COVERAGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THEN...
SCT TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. VARIABLE WIND GUSTS TO 30KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTM. IN ADDITION...GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...INCLUDING TAF SITE ABQ...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 30KT ARE LIKELY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH
WESTERN NM USHERING 50S DEWPOINTS ALL THE WAY TO THE AZ BORDER.
THOUGH...AREAS ACROSS NORTHEAST NM HAVE DRIED OUT SOMEWHAT.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ONLY DROPPED INTO
THE 30 TO 50 PCT RANGE...THOUGH SOME HIGHER VALUES ARE NOTED ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS MORNING DROPPED SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS.
SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTY RECEIVED IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES.  OTHER WETTING RAINS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS BORDER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN ON MONDAY...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ON
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGREES AS WELL. UPPER HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO
REBUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY TUESDAY...RAISING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER AND ALSO LIMITING AREAL COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NONETHELESS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
MOISTURE RECYCLING THROUGH MID WEEK. 34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  60  92  60  95 /  10  10  10   5
GALLUP..........................  53  87  52  89 /  20  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  53  85  54  85 /  40  20  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  60  89  60  93 /  40  30  30  40
CHAMA...........................  43  77  42  82 /  30  30  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  80  55  83 /  40  30  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  41  72  41  75 /  30  30  30  30
TAOS............................  51  83  49  85 /  30  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  56  82  56  85 /  50  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  84  57  87 /  50  30  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  54  87  54  91 /  40  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  86  66  90 /  50  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  87  61  91 /  50  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  85  64  89 /  50  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  86  62  91 /  50  20  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  62  88  61  92 /  50  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  78  51  81 /  50  30  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  85  55  86 /  40  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  84  59  88 /  50  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  53  75  53  78 /  60  40  30  30
RATON...........................  53  86  53  87 /  10  30  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  51  82 /  30  30  20  20
ROY.............................  59  80  59  84 /  20  30  10  20
CLAYTON.........................  59  87  61  90 /  10  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  62  86  61  90 /  40  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  87  63  92 /  20  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  86  65  91 /  50  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  85  65  87 /  50  40  20  20
PORTALES........................  65  86  62  88 /  50  40  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  87  68  91 /  60  30  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

46/43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2009

NMZ001>021-026-291200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
605 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FAST WATER FLOWS IN ARROYOS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH MINOR FLOODING OF ARROYOS AND SMALL
STREAMS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KW