Damaging Wind in New Mexico, July 14, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
251 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BROAD RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH CORE FROM EASTERN
ARIZONA TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...AND PROVIDING
LOCALIZED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THIS AXIS. BETTER CAPE AND REDUCED LIFTED INDICES
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH COLD FRONT SAGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO.

MODELS...AGREEING WELL ON RIDGE CORE SHIFT WESTWARD TO ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY AND REMAINING IN THIS ROUGH
POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. WESTWARD NUDGE WILL PERMIT
NORTHWEST FLOW TO CREASE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE FOR UPTICK
IN CONVECTION THERE...AND GENERAL SHIFT OF CONVECTIVE FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

SHORTER TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONVECTION LINGERING AND
CONTINUING ALONG CLAYTON TO BOOTHEEL AXIS WITH GREATER RESERVOIR
OF BUOYANCY AND INSTABILITY PROLONGING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING POISED TO SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY TO
TAKE EDGE OFF HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN
PLAINS AND NUDGE THESE BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. FRONT WILL BULGE
WESTWARD AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO EXPAND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE DAY TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

INTO THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE FOCUS DRIFTED WEST AND SITTING ON THE
ARIZONA BORDER FOR THE DAY...WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER
WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST PLAINS TO SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WITH
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS FAVORED FOR BROADER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR THE DAY. SOME ADDITIONAL VERTICAL WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE CARDS FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BOOST FOR TALLER AND STRONGER CONVECTION.

INTO FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO BROAD PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
BROAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE. CONTINUED FAST FLOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST
AND EASTERN BORDER MAY PROVIDE SOME DYNAMIC HELP FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE SPOTS...WITH BROAD SOUTH FLOW PRETTY MUCH
STATEWIDE CIRCULATED ABOUT SURFACE LOW OVER THE ARIZONA BORDER.

LONGER TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GRADUAL RIDGE WEAKENING
GETTING UNDERWAY SATURDAY IN AMPLIFYING PATTERN. RIDGE AXIS OF ELONGATION
SHIFTING FROM ZONAL TO MERIDIONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PERMITTING
ADDITIONAL ENCROACHMENT ON THE EASTERN MARGINS. SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN BORDER ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WIT THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY.

IMPORTANT NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY JULY 22ND AT 300 PM MDT...THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE WILL ISSUE PUBLIC FORECASTS
AND WARNING PRODUCTS USING NEW ZONE BOUNDARIES. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...
PLEASE REFER TO HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ/ZONES/2009PUBLICZONES.PHP
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. SOME
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS TODAY. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS
TO BE AFFECTED INCLUDE LVS...TCC AND ROW. WILL USE CB...VCTS/VCSH
AND TEMPO SHOWERS WITH VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS TO CAPTURE THE VARIOUS
UNCERTAINTIES TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AFFECTS. A PRONOUNCED FOCUS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER SOME PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE
PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. DURING THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RATHER WARM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. A WEAK TO
MODERATE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THIS UPPER HIGH TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TO THE HOT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. WETTING
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO TEND TO FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
FAVOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS TO THE
EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROMOTE A MODERATE GAP WIND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GAP WIND WOULD PUSH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WESTWARD. THIS WOULD ESSENTIALLY SET UP A LITTLE BETTER
DEVELOPMENT OF A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS
ON THURSDAY WITH WETTER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTS EASTWARD. THE
FEEDBACK PROCESS FROM RECYCLING OF THIS MOISTURE UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER HIGH SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM DRYING
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY PERIOD AS ONE OF THE LONGER
RANGE MODELS IS PREDICTING VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE STATE WHILE ANOTHER MODEL ISNT NEARLY AS DRY. HAVE THE
FORECAST HEDGED TO A COMPROMISED POSITION AT THIS POINT.
REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WARMEST WITH LOWEST
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD
HELP TO RECHARGE MOISTURE LEVELS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH FOR THE
WEEKEND.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  98  61  98 /   5   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  56  92  54  92 /  10   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  55  93  53  92 /  10   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  66  98  62  98 /  20  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  50  84  45  85 /  10  10   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  68  85  56  89 /  10  10   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  77  40  78 /  10  10   5  10
TAOS............................  53  90  50  90 /  10  10   5  10
SANTA FE........................  60  92  57  93 /  10  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  95  58  94 /  10  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  60  95  56  97 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  97  69  96 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  97  63  97 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  71  93  63  95 /  10   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  71  99  64 100 /  10   5   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  74  96  63  95 /  10   5   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  62  85  51  88 /  10   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  61  91  56  92 /  10   5   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  68  96  61  95 /  10  10   5  20
RUIDOSO.........................  60  86  55  85 /  20  10   5  30
RATON...........................  58  88  54  90 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  58  86  54  88 /  10  20  10  20
ROY.............................  64  86  61  86 /  10  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  67  90  64  93 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  65  95  61  95 /  10  10  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  72  97  68  97 /  20  10  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  94  68  95 /  10   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  96  65  96 /  10  10   5  10
PORTALES........................  72  98  68  95 /  10  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  71 100  70  99 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHY/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
425 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2009

NMZ001>021-026-151200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
425 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS...WHERE THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.