Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 18 to 19, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF. VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN WITH...BUT LATER
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WE COULD GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
STORMS. COULD HAVE SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND STRATUS LEFT BEHIND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING ON FRIDAY. ANY LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING
FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009/

DISCUSSION...PRIMARY SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. CAP SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR CWA...BUT CONVECTION WILL FIRE
FURTHER WEST AND COULD MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL JET REALLY KICKS UP BY LATE EVENING
WITH NOSE OF JET POINTED RIGHT AT OUR CWA. CONSEQUENTLY...INCREASED
POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. THERE WILL BE DECENT
INSTABILITY AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO HEIGHTEN THE THREAT OF
PREDOMINATELY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE
LOW LEVEL JET. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS LATE TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
EXPECT A NICE DRY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER
AROUND INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE WESTERN CONUS ON
SATURDAY. THE TROUGH OPENS UP INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING THAT ALONG WITH AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA OR POINTS JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA. THESE
STORMS SHOULD THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY STRONG ON
SATURDAY AT AROUND 50 TO 60 KTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
HOWEVER...AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IS QUESTIONABLE. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS MORE LIKELY IF
INSTABILITY IMPROVES.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP SLIGHT
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ON MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START
THE WEEK. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES VERY CHALLENGING BY DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 WITH OVERALL FLOW PATTERN GENERALLY SHOWING A RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. THIS
GENERALLY SPELLS OUT DRY WEATHER...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
A SHORT WAVE OR TWO TRYING TO RIDE THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY KICK OFF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST INCLUDE A FEW ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRO MID TO LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT AS COOL AS THEY WILL BE THE
WHOLE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. TEMPERATURES THEN RISE TO
AROUND 90 OR BETTER BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL
LIKELY BE EARLY TO MID WEEK WHILE THE RIDGE IS MOST SQUARELY
OVERHEAD.

AVIATION...18Z TAF. AT THE ONSET OF THE TAF PERIOD...VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOME CU WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING FOR KGRI OCCURRING MAINLY AFTER DARK.
STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KGRI
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
937 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
200245-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
937 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
6...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. ALSO...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN