Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Indiana, June 18, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
740 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE
EAST SOUTHEAST AFFECTING PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ESPECIALY KHUF AND
KBMG IN A FEW HOURS.  WILL MENTION A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND IFR VSBYS.  THIS COMPLEX MAY
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AND EVEN IF IT DOES NOT IT WILL MOVE BY OUR
TAF SITES BY MIDDAY.  AFTER THAT TIME WILL MENTION VCTS.

A WARM FRONT FROM NEAR KSTL-KSDF WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY.  THERE MAY BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER THIS
COMPLEX...BUT WITH LITTLE ELSE TO KEY ON WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS
UNTIL THIS EVENING.  PERIODS OF MVFR FOG LIKELY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MAIN WEATHER FACTOR TO WORK WITH ARE THE THUNDERSTORMS. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. OVERNIGHT THE NAM HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IT HAD A BULLSEYE OF PCPN IN
WESTERN KY WHERE A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE. IT
ALSO HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN IL. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF PVA
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA DURING THE MORNING. DUE TO THIS
PLACED A CHC OF TSTMS IN THE FCST DURING THE MORNING. LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN MODEL POPS AND TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE INCREASES TO 4600 FOR THE GFS WITH THE NAM HAVING SLIGHTLY
LOWER VALUES. LIS RANGE FROM -6 TO -9 THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS
HAVE STRONG POSITIVE OMEGA VALUES. DUE TO ALL THIS INSTABILITY AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL TEMPS HAVE A BIG DIFFERENCE. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS THE NAM WANTS TO DECREASE TEMPS EVEN THOUGH BOTH MODELS SHOW
STRONG WAA. MUCH OF THE TEMP INCREASE WIL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
PCPN DURING THE MORNING. SINCE THE GFS DIDNT HAVE THE PCPN THIS
MRNG WILL NOT GO AS HIGH AS IT SHOWS BUT WITH THE WAA AND ANY
SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL GO MUCH WARMER THEN THE NAM. TONIGHT THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH. ALL OTHER VALUES BECOME MORE STABLE SO
AFTER THE INITIAL HIGH TSTM PROB DURING THE EVENING WILL DECREASE
POPS TO SLGT CHC CNTRL AND S BUT KEEP A CHC GOING CLOSER TO THE
FRONT IN THE N. MODELS ONLY DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE LOW TEMPS SO WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.

ON FRIDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE AGAIN INCREASES TO BETTER THEN 4000. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE S/W MOVES IN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LIS OF BOTH MODELS ARE AROUND -8. DEW POINTS WILL BE
AROUND 70 WITH HIGHS ARND 90. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS DUE
TO ALL THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. HIGH TEMPS WILL AGAIN DEPEND ON
HOW QUICK THE PCPN MOVES IN. BOTH MODELS CONVERGE ON THE TEMPS BUT
WITH THE PCPN MOVING IN WILL GO CLOSER TO THE NOT AS HOT NAM.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY DURING SAT MRNG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION GIVING THE AREA A BREAK IN
THE PCPN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IND...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 17Z.
&&

AVIATION...JH
PUBLIC...HAINES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
613 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

INZ039>042-045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-191015-
HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-
HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-
GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
613 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OVER INDIANA. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT TORNADOES COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT. BY MIDNIGHT ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
EITHER MOVE OUT OR DECREASE BELOW SEVERE WEATHER LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES MAY POSE A HEALTH RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND MORE LIKELY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028>031-035>038-043-044-191015-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-VERMILLION-PARKE-
613 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OVER INDIANA. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BUT TORNADOES COULD NOT
BE RULED OUT. BY MIDNIGHT ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
EITHER MOVE OUT OR DECREASE BELOW SEVERE WEATHER LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 90 WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES MAY POSE A HEALTH RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND MORE LIKELY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING THEN AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

HAINES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
830 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 NW TERRE HAUTE       39.57N 87.52W
06/18/2009  M50 MPH          VIGO               IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DWM