Ahead of a slow-moving cold front, widespread heavy rain from three to six inches caused local flooding. Rainfall amounts were lowest down toward the Bootheel area (including New Madrid and Charleston), where about three inches fell.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Ahead of a slow-moving cold front, widespread heavy rain from three to six inches caused local flooding. Rainfall amounts were lowest down toward the Bootheel area (including New Madrid and Charleston), where about three inches fell. The heaviest amounts were along and north of a Van Buren to Greenville line, where close to six inches fell. Ellsinore in Carter County reported 5.9 inches. These amounts fell over a 48-hour period. The period of heaviest rainfall was during a line of thunderstorms on the evening of the 8th, when up to 1.5 inches fell in an hour at a location near Poplar Bluff.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 8, 2:11 PM CST, 7 hours 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DID
DECIDE TO CHANGE THE FLOOD WATCH TO START AT 21Z INSTEAD OF
00Z...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE NOSE OF A 50KT LOW LEVEL
JET OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
EVENING...LEAVING THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE WATCH AREA HAS NOT CHANGED. STILL FEELING
THAT THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MOVE FAST ENOUGH OVER
WEST KENTUCKY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THERE.
WARM FRONT IS JUST ON SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA AT 20Z. IT
SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS TREMENDOUS SHEAR BELOW 2 KM...SO IF SURFACE BASED STORMS
DEVELOP...WHETHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR LINEAR
SEGMENTS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT TRUE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER TO END THE CONVECTION FRIDAY...SO
WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HPC QPF IS NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A HALF INCH AFTER 18Z...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH INTO THE AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON HOW BAD
THE FLOODING IS.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS NON-
DIURNAL TRENDS ARE LIKELY WITH WARM FRONT AND THEN COLD FRONT.
TRIED TO SHOW THE COOLING TREND FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY. THE EXTENDED MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THAT PERIOD IS NOW DRY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.
THE BIG QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED IS HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA
WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WARM MOIST
ADVECTION BEGINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL HAVE SMALL
POPS IN BOTH PERIODS FOR NOW. THE MODELS TEND TO BE SLOW TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK ON THE BACK SIDE OF SUCH COLD HIGH
PRESSURE...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE POPS ADDED TO
WEDNESDAY IF NOT EARLIER. GENERALLY TRENDED A BIT WARMER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS HPC OR MEX GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. AN AXIS OF STEADIER HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL SPEED UP AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. CIGS/VSBYS VARY FROM LOW VFR TO LIFR AROSS MISSOURI AND
ARKANSAS...SO EXPECT SIMILAR CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES TODAY. TONIGHT/FRIDAY SHOULD SEE CIGS PREDOMINATELY IFR WITH A
PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT.
LIGHTNING WILL BE A CONCERN TONIGHT AS MORE UNSTABLE AIR PUSHES
NORTHWARD. WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN...BUT
COULD GUST TO 20KTS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATER ON FRIDAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR HENDERSON-UNION KY.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
GIRARDEAU-CARTER-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PERRY MO.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALEXANDER-GALLATIN-
HARDIN-JOHNSON-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WHITE-
WILLIAMSON.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-
HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-PERRY IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.
&&
DRS/DRS/ADHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 806 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-091000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 806 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM FOR ALL OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND THE SOUTHERN-MOST PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. HEAVY RAINS INCLUDING REPEAT HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING. REFER TO THE FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 100 PM FRIDAY. REFER TO THE WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THE WATCHES TONIGHT.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009 ILZ088-092-093-KYZ003-004-MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114-090445- PULASKI IL-ALEXANDER IL-UNION IL-BALLARD KY-CARLISLE KY-STODDARD MO- SCOTT MO-WAYNE MO-BOLLINGER MO-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARTER MO- MISSISSIPPI MO-BUTLER MO-NEW MADRID MO-RIPLEY MO- 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... AT 1047 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WERE MEASURED AT THE POPLAR BLUFF AIRPORT AT 1038 PM. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS LOCATED FROM ANNA ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST ACROSS CAPE GIRARDEAU AND POPLAR BLUFF...TO DONIPHAN MISSOURI. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...BUT THE STRONG WIND GUSTS WERE OCCURRING 15 MINUTES IN ADVANCE OF THE ACTUAL STORMS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AS WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADS. WATER LEVELS IN SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS AND IN DITCHES MAY RISE QUICKLY...ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. MY
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Water was over Highway 74 between Cape Girardeau and Dutchtown.
County Road 220 was closed near Silva.
A couple of roads near small creeks were closed by flooding in the Van Buren area.
Water was reported across Highways 142 and 158, south and southwest of Poplar Bluff. Water was over a few smaller roads, including County Road 314.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2009Every state in 2009This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, October 2009
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 198279, 198281, 198280, 198290.