Hail in Kansas, April 29, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT WED APR 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT WED APR 29 2009

SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT) CONTINUES TO
BE DOMINATED BY NEAR DAILY AND OVERNIGHT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING THREAT FOR FOG...EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WILL BE EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A DISTURBANCE MOVES
OUT OF COLORADO. INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE A HIGH
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN SFC CONVERGENT AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE. THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
BUT THE OVERALL AREA OF PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SLOWLY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. MORE OF
THE SAME FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING GIVEN PERIODS OF STRATUS
WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BURN OFF WITH OTHER DAYS HAVING LITTLE
STRATUS BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
HAVE TRENDED COOLER THROUGH SATURDAY USING THE MODIFIED AND
UNMODIFIED 850 TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS 2M/MOS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NEAR 60 WITH MID 50S
(POSSIBLY COOLER) FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...MORE OF THE SAME.
NORTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DISTURBANCES AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEARLY EACH DAY AND NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE SEASONAL.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
1135 AM MDT WED APR 29 2009

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT AT BOTH TAF
SITES. NO AVIATION CONCERNS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...LATER THIS AFTERNOON ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EITHER ALONG A DRY LINE IN EASTERN COLORADO OR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN NEBRASKA. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT
AND LIKELY IMPACT TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING. LOW
STRATUS WILL THEN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.

24

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT WED APR 29 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT WED APR 29 2009 /1145 AM CDT WED APR 29 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE TRI STATE AREA. COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BEFORE
SUNSET...BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREATS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.