Tornadoes and Hail in Kansas, April 29, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
400 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
85H WAA AND I295-I305 ISENTROPIC SFCS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS SW KS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPES AND
A WEAK 5H VORT LOBE CROSSING THE CWA ALSO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
MENTION OF AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO AS WELL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WED. AS A RESULT WILL RETAIN THE MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE GRIDS BUT AT THIS TIME THINK THE BULK OF PCPN THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION TO
THIS PCPN WILL ALSO BE MENTIONING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LVL MOISTURE PROGGED IN SW KS BY 12Z WED.

AS OUR BROAD AREA OF LIFT SHIFTS EAST INTO CNTL KS DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY A DRY LINE WILL MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP OVER WRN KS GIVEN THE PROGGED CAPES AND MCON
ALONG THIS SFC FEATURE AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE ALL MENTION OF PCPN
IN OUR WRN CWA. ALSO ANY STORM WHICH DOES DEVELOP, SLIGHT AS IT
MAY BE, STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING
SEVERE.

BY EARLY THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WRN KANSAS
AND IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BRIEFLY STALL OUT NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND 85H-7H LIFT
PRESENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL NOT ONLY BRING CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO OUR NRN CWA BUT ALSO MENTION OF CHANCE
OF SHRA LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT 85H TEMPS
SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO THIS WE MAY NEED TO
MONITOR OUR SE CWA LATE THURSDAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. SB CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3500J/KG AND
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30-40KTS.

DAYS 3-7...
MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WITH POPS/TIMING FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF A COUPLE
OF UPPER JET SEGMENTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK AND
SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS FRONT, THERE WILL
BE HIGH LIKELIHOOD PRECIPITATION EVENTS ACROSS NEBRASKA KANSAS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS THE ECMWF HAS
HAD THE BEST CONTINUITY, AND GFS HAS SEEMED TO BECOME IN LINE WITH
THIS MODEL IN RECENT RUNS, WILL BE FOLLOWING ECMWF CLOSELY FOR
DETAILS.

WITH COLD FRONT PASSING ON THURSDAY, LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW 60S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER JET LIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, A MID LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
MIDWEST.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE HAVE FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE MUCH
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR, AND HAVE THUS KEPT POPS MINIMAL, WHILE
INCREASING THEM GRADUALLY INTO THE LATER WEEKEND TIMEFRAME. TEH
BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS REMAINS NORTH AND  EAST OF THE REGION
IN THESE INSTANCES. HOWEVER...BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS APPEAR IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE FRONT, WITH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE ALLOWING A GOOD CHANCE  OF ELEVATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN.

FOR EARLY WEEK 2 THE SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ANOTHER WESTERN TROUGH PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, MAKING ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE BY MID
WEEK FORE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMPLICATED SITUATION AS FAR AS CEILINGS AND VSBYS WILL GO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A WAVE OF MID LEVEL WAA SHOWERS. WITH
DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING THROUGH THE EVENING, WOULD EXPECT
CEILINGS TO ONCE AGAIN LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY, AND VLIFR BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  76  57  71 /  40  40  20  20
GCK  53  80  53  69 /  30  30  30  20
EHA  54  85  52  80 /  30  20   0  10
LBL  53  82  55  78 /  40  40  30  10
HYS  53  74  54  64 /  30  40  40  30
P28  57  76  61  77 /  50  50  40  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/33/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
503 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
503 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2009 /403 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EAST OF THE
LOW WHILE A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THESE FEATURES COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. TO
THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WHILE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO
25 MPH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. OUTDOOR
BURNING SHOULD BE POSTPONED IF THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

GERARD