Drought in Hawaii, September 1 to 30, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
822 PM HST MON AUG 31 2009

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER ISSUED
DISCUSSION. HOWEVER...EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUMP OF
SHOWER-BEARING CUMULUS APPROACHING MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE
EAST...AND THIS WILL MAKE FOR A DAMP NIGHT FOR WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
THESE ISLANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE POP/SKY/QPF FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE SHOWERS...OTHERWISE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BUT WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL RECEIVE SOME
SHOWERS TONIGHT. MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
FEW MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A HIGH TO
THE NORTH WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
TRADES WILL BE LOCALLY BREEZY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION ISSUED 400 PM...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DRY
SUMMERTIME TRADE-WIND WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS ARE QUITE SPARSE OVER MOST AREAS WITH PATCHY BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE BIG ISLAND. RADARS SHOW ALMOST NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY AROUND THE ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THE CLOUDS
OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL DISSIPATE AND THERE
WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

A SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1550 MILES NORTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO ABOUT 500
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE HIGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST...AND END UP ABOUT 800 MILES NORTH OF OAHU BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH GETS CLOSER...THE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THROUGH
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 615 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HILO WILL MOVE WEST AROUND 10 MPH. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND A FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAY
BECOME RATHER LIGHT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS UP FOR WINDIER AREAS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED. WE MAY ALSO NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MORE OF
THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR THE ALENUIHAHA AND
PAILOLO CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY...AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

UPDATE...BIRCHARD
PREV DISCUSSION...DONALDSON