Strong Wind in Florida, November 7 to 10, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TARGET AND ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED... ADDED ISOLD SHRA TO PALM BEACH
COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A FEW VERY LIGHT SHRA ARE
ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE AND MORE CAN BE EXPECTED LATER. ALSO MADE A
MINOR TWEAK TO THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. /TINGLER

&&

.MARINE...AS IDA MOVES TOWARD THE GULF TONIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL TIGHTEN EVEN
MORE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE. CURRENTLY THE SCA WILL COVER THE
ONGOING CONDITIONS, HOWEVER FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE MAY BEGIN
TO OCCUR TOWARD MORNING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS PRIMARILY THE
GULF ZONES, AND INDEED AT SAND KEY LIGHT IN KEY WESTS CWA THESE
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. LATER SUNDAY THESE CONDITIONS MAY
CREEP FARTHER NORTH AND COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WITH THE GULF ZONES RECEIVING THE
HIGHEST GUSTS... THEREFORE A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED LATER ON
SUNDAY, BUT ATTM WILL NOT PULL THE TRIGGER AND WILL LET THE MID
SHIFT LOOK IT OVER. /TINGLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/

AVIATION...
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE MADE
THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINALS.
STRONG/GUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT FLL/PBI...AND WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST OF 15G25 KNOTS
AT THESE TERMINALS...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ELSEWHERE. WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA...BUT OVERALL THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
VCSH. EASTERLY WINDS 20G30 KNOTS EXPECTED AT ALL ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS ON SUNDAY...AND 17G27 KNOTS AT APF.

70/DD

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009/

..CONTINUED WINDY WITH ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH MONDAY...

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES ALOFT...EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIB NW ACROSS THE E
GULF OF MEX AND INTO THE SE U.S. GULF COAST STATES...GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA INTO THE ATLC BY MON
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ALIGNED FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH TROPICAL
STORM IDA IN THE W CARIB AND FORECASTED BY NHC TO CONTINUE TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MON...THE CURRENT HIGH PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...DUE TO THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING IDA TO THE SW...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...
INCREASING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS S FLA.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE WITH THE BRUNT OF THE WIND AFFECTING THE
E COAST. WITH THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY TIGHTENING...SUSTAINED
WINDS AND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS SUN INTO MON. THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
THOUGH UPON THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF IDA. A WIND ADVISORY AFFECTING
PRIMARILY THE E MAY BE NEEDED SUN-MON BUT AWAIT W CARIB/GULF
DEVELOPMENTS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST RAOBS INDICATE DRY/STABLE MID
LEVELS WHICH GRADUALLY MOISTENS ALLOWING ESSENTIALLY ONLY PASSING
SHOWERS ON THE BREEZE TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE SUN AND SUN
NIGHT. SO...LOW POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SEEP NORTHWARD OVER S FLA MON AS WINDS BEGIN TO VEER SE. THIS WILL
INCREASE POPS OVER THE SW PORTION OF S FLA MON WITH AN INCREASE
POPS ALONG THE COASTS MON NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE /CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA REMAINS W OF S FLA
OVER THE GULF.

EXTENDED PERIOD...TUE THROUGH SATURDAY
A LOT DEPENDS UPON THE EXACT PATH OF IDA. SOME MODELS SEND THE
SYSTEM INTO THE FLA PANHANDLE AND SOME INTO THE E GULF. WILL
FOLLOW THE CURRENT NHC TRACK WHICH TAKES IDA TOWARD THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE E GULF BY WED IN A WEAKENED
CONDITION WHICH FINALLY HAS THE SYSTEM BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL AND
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SE U.S. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH S FLA WED. THUS...A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TUE THRU EARLY WED WITH DECREASING CHANCES END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG
HIGH PRES OVER THE E U.S. MAY INCREASE WINDS AGAIN THU AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL ZONES IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE MORNING AS
WINDS WILL CONTINUE 20+ KTS WITH INCREASES SUN AND MON POSSIBLE.
SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AS WELL. VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS E COAST BEACHES. THOUGH WINDS RELAX AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LATE TUE INTO WED...STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT THU
INDICATES A STRONG PRES GRADIENT REDEVELOPING WHICH LEADS TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN ON THU FROM N TO S.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  78  85 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  84  79  84 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            76  83  78  85 / 20 20 30 20
NAPLES           68  87  70  89 / 10 20 30 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-GMZ657-
     GMZ676.

&&

LONG TERM...04/AT
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...70/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-080900-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
745 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...WAVES OF 8 TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE GULF STREAM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CREATE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES.

WIND: NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 25 MPH OR POSSIBLY HIGHER AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE OF PALM BEACH,
BROWARD, AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.

WAVES: NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL RESULT IN GULF STREAM SEAS AROUND 8 TO 10 FEET
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS, HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS
ATLANTIC COAST RIP CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST, ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.