NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 7, 2:27 AM EST, 5 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 7, 2:27 AM EST, 5 hours 33 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MORE DISTURBED
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS STILL PRETTY FAR
TO THE WEST IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, BUT IT IS QUITE EVIDENT ON
RADAR WITH A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION, AND IT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
TO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY, HOWEVER, THERE WAS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVERNIGHT,
AND WITH THE POTENT VORT MAX FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT,
WE HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END QUICKLY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WHICH SHOULD BE BETWEEN 12-15Z, OR BETWEEN 8-11 AM.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, WE ARE EXPECTING THE WINDS TO INCREASE
RATHER QUICKLY. WITH A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 45-50 KT BETWEEN 800-850
MB AND 925 WINDS AROUND 35-40 KT, PLUS DECENT COOL AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE ABOVE THE SURFACE, WE COULD MIX DOWN SOME WINDS
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE WE HAVE LEFT THE WIND
ADVISORY AS IS. THE WINDS LOOK TO DECREASE AS WE GO FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE DELMARVA, SO WE HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE ADVISORY SOUTHWARD
AT THIS TIME. WINDS COULD STILL GUST UP TO 35-40 MPH IN THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND NO RAIN
CHANCES, ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND LAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THURSDAY.
THURSDAY WILL BE COMFORTABLE, WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE
60S, AND A FEW 70S POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WHICH COULD PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
OUR AREA. IF THIS HAPPENS, THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIPITATION REACH
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY
STRONG, SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES OUT TO SEA, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SO
FOR NOW THE FORECAST IS DRY. BY LATE SUNDAY, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA THIS FRIDAY AS IT
STALLS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THEN MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD OUR
AREA ON MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO START
OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY, THEN BECOME
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WE ARE FORECASTING TO BE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES FROM 12Z /NORTHWEST/ TO 14Z /SOUTHEAST/, WE ARE
FORECASTING MVFR CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, BUT THE CHANCES OF ANY GIVEN SITE
EXPERIENCING IT SEEM LOW AND WE HAVE LEFT OUT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP SOME
GUSTINESS /AROUND 20 KNOTS/.
AFTER THE FROPA, CEILINGS SHOULD EITHER DISAPPEAR OR GO VFR, WHILE
WINDS VEER TO WEST AND PICK UP CONSIDERABLY. WE ARE FORECASTING
GUSTS WELL ABOVE 30 KNOTS IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH
THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY TONIGHT
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
OUTLOOK...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OUT TO SEA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE NEAR/JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERION. SEAS ALSO WERE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERION. GIVEN THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, THAT SOON WILL CHANGE AND WE ARE GOING TO MAINTAIN
THE GALE WARNING AS IT IS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT, VEERING FROM SOUTH TO WEST AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. SEAS WILL BUILD WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS, BUT SINCE THE FLOW WILL BE OFFSHORE IN NATURE THE
SEA HEIGHTS OVER OUR ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULDNT RISE ABOVE 6 OR 7
FEET.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE GRADUALLY
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DO SO ON THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY ARE
FORECAST TO PICK UP AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
BEGINNING FRIDAY. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
AND SEAS WITH THAT SYSTEM.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR DEZ001.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455-470.
&&
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI