Lightning Strike in Colorado, July 1, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

CURRENTLY 96 DEG AT KPUB...WITH HOT SPOT 99 DEG AT KLHX. SHOULD END
UP AS FORECAST...A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK. DEWPTS HAVE
REALLY FALLEN OVR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOW IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S. ISOLD TS OVR THE MTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY WEAK AND WITH THE BL
DRYING OUT...DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP THIS EVE. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO ERN WY HAS THUS FAR NOT PROVIDED MUCH OF
A SPARK...AND SHOULD BE THRU THE AREA BY 03Z. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS A BIT AND HAVE PRECIP ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
CLEARING CONDITIONS AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...ANTICIPATED FRONT LOOKS A BIT SLOW TO ARRIVE...WITH COOLING
ALOFT NOT REALLY KICKING IN UNTIL THU EVE. SO...WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM
DAY WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY REACHING MID TO EVEN UPPER 90S OVR THE
PLAINS. INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO LLVL WINDS WILL HOLD DOWN
MAX TEMPS TO SOME EXTENT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION UNTIL THE EVE...SO DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE
LIMITED TO THE MTS AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO SOME SCT TS
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS TO SOME EXTENT...THO
THE 12Z GFS AND 18Z NAM SUGGEST THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED
BACK EVEN FURTHER. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

...BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...

PATTERN STILL SHAPING UP TO SUPPORT INCREASE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DETAILS ARE VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN...OF
COURSE.  BUT...THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED DURING SUMMER CONVECTIVE
WEATHER. BASIC PATTERN IS ONE OF BROAD...FLAT RIDGING CENTERED TO
THE SOUTH OF COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALLOWING MONSOON MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES TO COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND CLIP
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.  SHEARS ARENT LOOK GREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT ARE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE (AND POTENTIALLY CAPES)
THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.  H5 WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 20-30 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...COULD SEE A FEW RIGHT MOVERS AFFECTING THE I-25
CORRIDOR.  AT THIS TIME...PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE LIGHTNING...
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD BE IN THE SEVERE CATEGORY...PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR MORE AND HAIL TO AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.
IF SHEARS INCREASE JUST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTED...WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME DECENT SEVERE STORMS...WITH EVEN LARGER
HAIL AND GREATER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

PRESENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL TAKE A DOWN
TURN AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A DRIER...WARMER SOUTHWEST
FLOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  HOWEVER...THE EASTERN BORDER
AREAS COULD BE SUBJECT TO SOME DRYLINE ACTIVITY DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH COULD MEAN SOME SEVERE WEATHER OUT THAT WAY.
SO...WHILE AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MAY TEND TO DRY OUT
AND HEAT UP...THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE STORMS.  AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD.  PLEASE STAY TUNED.
LW

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE 3 TAF SITES NEXT
24H. ALTHOUGH A TSRA IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVE...CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW. MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIRGA SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE VCNTY
KCOS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

44/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
909 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2009

COZ058>089-093>099-021515-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
909 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WHILE MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED EACH DAY.
METEOROLOGICAL THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HAZARDOUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
FROM LATER THURSDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.