Tornado and Flood in Florida, July 1 to 3, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...CUTOFF LOW PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE L/W TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA...AND THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.  U/L LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP AND LIFT
OUT ON FRIDAY WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  VERY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH PCPW
VALUES OVER 2 INCHES COMBINED WITH LIFT PROVIDED BY U/L ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE VERY
UNSTABLE WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TODAY
AND THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY
RAIN WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY 3
TO 5 INCHES.  WITH THE ABUNDANT RAINS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  RIVER
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON THE SMALLER FLASHIER
RIVERS WITH THE MAIN THREAT ON THE MANATEE AND LITTLE MANATEE
RIVERS...WITH SIGNIFICANT RISES ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE ALAFIA AND
ANCLOTE RIVERS.  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
WATERSPOUTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHICH CAN MOVE
ONSHORE IN WESTERLY FLOW...BECOMING SHORT LIVED TORNADOES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.  HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE U/L TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...MODELS SEEM TO FINALLY BE IN
AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING THE UPPER TROUGH AND ALLOWING SOME RIDGING TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS IS NO LONGER SHOWING A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...BUT MOST MODELS DO SHOW
A GOOD RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO
DISRUPT THE LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE LAST WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF AS WE GET TOWARD DAY 7...WITH THE GFS LOOKING A BIT TOO DEEP
WITH A NEW EAST COAST TROUGH...PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
DOOR STEP ON TUESDAY. WILL USE THE GFS EXCLUSIVELY THROUGH MONDAY...
THEN THE ECMWF FOR TUESDAY WHICH WILL BASICALLY JUST CONTINUE WEAK
RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

OVERALL...THIS REQUIRES VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SOUTHERN-MOST
ZONES.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER ONCE AGAIN...WITH MANY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST APPROACHING THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS AGAIN AND MOVE
TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINALS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME. WILL FOCUS TEMPO CONDITIONS DURING
MID MORNING FOR TPA...PIE AND SRQ AND LEAN TOWARD AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR FMY AND RSW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  78  88  77 /  80  50  70  40
FMY  88  76  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
GIF  87  76  89  76 /  80  50  70  40
SRQ  86  77  88  77 /  80  50  70  40
BKV  87  74  88  73 /  80  50  70  30
SPG  85  79  87  79 /  80  50  70  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
     HERNANDO...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...
     SARASOTA...DESOTO...HARDEE...AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...EO
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
412 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-012015-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
412 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS...AS WELL
AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. WATERSPOUTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHICH COULD MOVE ONSHORE
PRODUCING SHORT LIVED TORNADOES.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN AREAS IS LIKELY TODAY...ESPECIALLY
IN AND AROUND TAMPA BAY. SIGNIFICANT TRAFFIC DELAYS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING RUSH HOUR THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
EVENING.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
RISK OF FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. RIVER
FLOODING MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE FLASHIER
RIVERS IN THE TAMPA BAY AREA LIKE THE MANATEE AND LITTLE MANATEE
RIVERS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE ALAFIA AND
ANCLOTE RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

OGLESBY