Wildfire in California, September 26 to 29, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
904 PM PDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.UPDATE...FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BASED ON TODAYS VALUES
AND FOR MONDAY BASED ON SLOWER TIMING OF INCOMING AIRMASS CHANGE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. WITH LITTLE TO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY, I TWEAKED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BASICALLY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE. AS FOR THE END OF
THE HOT SPELL AND THE CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER WEATHER, THE LATEST
SREF MODEL DATA, NOW SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST NAM MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT MONDAY WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AS
THE SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR IS NOT PROGGED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY OVER THE NORTH AND NOT UNTIL TUESDAY OVER KERN COUNTY.

I AM CONCERNED ABOUT THE THREAT OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE SIERRA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE LATEST SREF (ENSEMBLE) PROJECTION
INDICATES AT LEAST CHANCE POPS OVER THE SIERRA ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR, LOWERED SNOW LEVELS AND THE
REAL THREAT OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
TO THE NORTH OF SEQUOIA PARK. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES DECIDE JUST HOW HARD TO HIT THIS OR NOT. STILL
IT WILL BE A MUCH COOLER AND WINDY CHANGE TO THE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 27 2009...UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS
AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ295.

&&

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD