Rip Current in Florida, September 26, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
942 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS BUILDING DOWN OVER
THE AREA TODAY COMBINING WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. DRIER AIR
EXISTS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WITH MORNING SOUNDING AT
XMR SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-1.8 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE DUE TO DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LOWER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY DIMINISH AS WEAK E/SE FLOW OVER THE REGION ALLOWS FOR
ECSB DEVELOPMENT TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WITH THEN BE FOCUSED AHEAD
AND ALONG THE ECSB OVER THE INTERIOR OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WHERE SEA/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AND
NEAR LAKE COUNTY WHERE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
LOOK TO COLLIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE POPS AROUND 30%
FOR THESE AREAS WITH 20% ELSEWHERE. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
NO CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED WITH LOW COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL DEVELOP AND COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR NEAR LAKE COUNTY LATE
THIS AFT. IT IS ALONG THIS COLLISION THAT BEST CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR BTW 21-00Z. WILL JUST KEEP VCSH/VCTS RIGHT
NOW FOR INTERIOR TAF SITES BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS MAINLY FROM MID TO LATE
AFT.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHANGES PLANNED. (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) ONE MORE DAY
OF ONSHORE FLOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS THEN WINDS TURN SW TONIGHT AS RIDGE
AXIS GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE WATERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. LINGERING EAST SWELL AROUND 2 FT WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONTRIBUTION TO WAVE HEIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SMALL WIND CHOP
ASSOCD WITH THE 10KT SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

WEITLICH/GLITTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
553 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-262200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
553 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING
THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS WHERE THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
STRIKES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS OF 35 MPH
IN THE STRONGER CELLS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A LINGERING EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY MAINLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MIDWEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY