High Wind in California, May 12, 2009

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
150 PM PDT TUE MAY 12 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRI)...THE BIG STORY TODAY ARE THE WINDS WHICH
WERE ALREADY GUSTING OVER 40 MPH OVER PARTS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
AND L.A./VTU MTNS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH IN THESE AREAS. A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ANTELOPE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...AND ALSO FOR THE L.A./VTU MTNS TODAY THRU 3 AM
WEDNESDAY. WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL COAST...A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA AS WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AT
LEAST 35 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SBA S COAST
AND MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. WINDS OVER THIS AREA SHOULD GUST NEAR 60 MPH BELOW AND
THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS THIS EVENING THRU LATE TONIGHT. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE MAINLY AROUND AND WEST OF SAN
MARCOS PASS INCLUDING GAVIOTA PASS. WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCH
TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THIS AREA FOR THIS EVENING THRU LATE
TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWLOX FOR THE LATEST DETAILS ON THE STRONG
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MARINE LAYER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT LAX HAS LOWERED TO NEAR 1900 FT
DEEP. LOW CLOUDS THAT COVERED THE COAST AND VALLEYS S OF POINT
CONCEPTION THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE DISTRICT. THERE MAY BE
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR THE L.A. COAST AND
PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER RIDGE SW OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A BROAD W TO WNW
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION THRU THU. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST BY FRI WHICH WILL TURN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
MORE NORTHERLY. DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THRU FRI...ALTHO PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG MAY AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST AND L.A. COUNTY COAST AT TIMES.
A DECENT NORTHERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTY NW TO N WINDS
PERSISTING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SBA S COAST MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THRU THU NIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL ALSO
PREVAIL AFTERNOONS AND EVENING THRU THU NIGHT FOR THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE WIND ADVISORIES OR
HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED OVER THIS REGION AT TIMES THRU THU
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AT
LEAST THRU THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INLAND
OVER CA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN SAT THRU SUN. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BRING WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR INLAND AREAS. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 SAT AND SUN FOR THE
VALLEYS...FOOTHILLS AND LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER BUT STILL NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE COAST
DURING THE PERIOD. THE EC THEN BUILDS THE UPPER HI INTO OREGON MON
AND TUE WHILE THE GFS BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS AN UPPER TROF
MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS FORECASTS AN UPPER
LOW TO DEVELOP WELL SW OF THE DISTRICT MON AND APPROACH THE REGION
BY TUE. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BUT OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR EITHER SOLUTION...WITH SOME MID AND HI
LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY MOVING IN BY TUE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MON THEN FALL TO NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...12/1915Z.
AN ODD CLEARING PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON...YET SOMEWHAT REFLECTIVE OF
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DISTRICT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DISTRICT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ASIDE FROM A
RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LOS
ANGELES COAST...THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE VENTURA
COAST...A GOOD CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...SIRARD
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
206 PM PDT TUE MAY 12 2009

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-131300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
206 PM PDT TUE MAY 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... THROUGH TONIGHT

VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CERATE HAZARDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY THE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
AREAS OF QUARTER MILE VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SAND AND DUST. STRONG
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH COAST TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
CENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND THE SOUTH COAST OF
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. MARINERS WILL FACE A HAZARDOUS GALE
ACROSS ALL THE OUTER WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST...AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING OTHERWISE ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW AND THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MARINERS WILL FACE A HAZARDOUS GALE
ACROSS ALL THE OUTER WATERS. SIGNIFICANT HEAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SIRARD