Damaging Winds in Arkansas, March 24, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR A SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI TO FORT
SMITH ARKANSAS LINE. SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT HAS BEEN ADVANCING EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WHILE PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE AFTERNOON
IN THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SYSTEM. TRIED TO TIME THIS
ACCORDINGLY IN THE TERMINALS...AND HELD ON TO PRECIP TIL AFTER
SUNSET IN THE CENTRAL AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES...WITH SUSTAINED VELOCITIES
NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30. WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE ERRATIC AND VERY GUSTY... LIKELY GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS.

CEILINGS WILL BE MARGINAL VFR...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR WITHIN
PRECIP AREAS.

TAFS ALREADY OUT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE NOON. MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW DISCRETE CELLS ARE DEVELOPING IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING SHOWS A LOW
LEVEL JET OF 55 KTS AROUND 2000 FEET HELPING TO BRING MOISTURE AND
SHEAR TO THE STATE. HOWEVER...A NOTICEABLE CAP WILL KEEP
CONVECTION AT BAY UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER.

INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR TODAY. THE HIGH LEVEL OF
SHEAR WILL ALLOW DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE HIGH
AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS TIMING AND BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP WITH INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...AND THEN THE
UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS EXTREME NORTH
ARKANSAS...AND WILL HAVE MORE INFORMATION IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  44  67  45 /  80  70  30  50
CAMDEN AR         74  49  69  49 /  90  70  40  70
HARRISON AR       64  38  64  42 /  90  30  30  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    70  46  69  46 /  90  50  40  60
LITTLE ROCK   AR  72  46  69  48 /  90  70  40  60
MONTICELLO AR     77  49  69  51 /  90  90  40  70
MOUNT IDA AR      68  45  68  45 /  90  40  40  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  40  65  42 /  90  40  30  50
NEWPORT AR        71  46  67  47 /  80  80  30  50
PINE BLUFF AR     74  49  69  50 /  90  80  40  60
RUSSELLVILLE AR   67  42  66  45 /  90  40  30  60
SEARCY AR         71  46  68  48 /  80  70  30  60
STUTTGART AR      73  48  68  50 /  80  80  30  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

AVIATION...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY PRESENT IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS...WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING A
CONCERN.

GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL...
REACHING SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH AT
TIMES. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE
TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE STORMS WILL PUSH EAST AND MOVE OUT OF ARKANSAS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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