Wildfire in Georgia, March 24, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFT N AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE W FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT HAS SETTLED NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND
WILL WOBBLE SLIGHTLY IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MARINE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ITS APEX
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SANTEE RIVER ENTRANCE. THE SEABREEZE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE AND ALLOWING ANY REMAINING ISOLD RAIN
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH. THUS...HAVE CARRIED 10 PERCENT OR LESS POPS
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

GOING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN FROM THE NE BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT AND AS ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS. SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE HEIGHTENED NEAR THE
NRN FRINGES OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...SO ISOLD SHOWERS LOOK TO
DEVELOP WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVE N AND W...POSSIBLY IMPACTING FAR
ERN PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES SO HAVE
MAINTAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES AND TRENDED POPS
TO LOW-END CHC CATEGORY GOING FURTHER OFFSHORE.

WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLOW TO DIMINISH DUE TO NE TO E
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO THE
AREA...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...ONLY
DROPPING TO THE UPPER 40S N TO THE MID 50S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY...
THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL RIDE ALONG THE NRN FRINGES OF
THIS RIDGE. MEANWHILE...THE STALLED FRONT TO THE S WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT FROM LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE DUE TO THE
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE ERN GOMEX...
CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT TMRW AND TMRW NIGHT. IN ADDITION... THE
PRESENCE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL MAKE FOR ISOLD SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE E WHILE A SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE W. PRE-FRONTAL OMEGA LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO ALSO MOVE
IN FROM THE W...MAKING FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CHCS FOR PRECIP
TMRW INTO TMRW NIGHT. POPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SLGT-LOW END CHC
POP RANGE TMRW...THEN RISING TO THE MID-HIGH END CHC RANGE TMRW
NIGHT. AM NOT QUITE CONFIDENT TO GO TO THE LIKELY RANGE PER MOS
GUIDANCE AS THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS HIGHLY IN DOUBT. THUS...
FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN RAISING THE POPS A BIT BUT KEEPING THEM
BELOW 55 PERCENT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND WITH
MAINLY E WINDS TMRW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL. AS THE FRONT LIFTS N AND WASHES OUT TMRW NIGHT...WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO HAVE A MORE DOMINANT SLY COMPONENT...ALLOWING MIN
TEMPS TO RISE TO THE MID-UPR 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THIS PERIOD AS
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THROUGH FRI...THEN THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL RIDE
NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THU WHILE THE SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRES
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AROUND TEXARKANA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
SECONDARY LOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS INLAND AREAS. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS FRI AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER THE
WARM SLY FLOW REGIME.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW AGREE A
BIT BETTER WITH THE FRONT COMING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING. HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS SAT NIGHT...TAPERING OFF FROM W TO E SUN MORNING. SAT
COULD BE A VERY WARM DAY DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER...WITH MID 80S
POSSIBLE FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD STILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT SUN. WILL ALSO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY WX AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE AREA...LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS. BKN SKIES
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTN AT BOTH TERMINALS. A FEW
ISOLD SHWRS HAVE POPPED UP S OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER...WHICH IS ALSO
JUST S OF WHERE THE FRONT HAS STALLED OUT. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL DRIFT NEAR KSAV BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE TERMINAL SO
WILL HANDLE WITH A VCSH AND AMEND IF NEEDED. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 12 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO ARND 5 KT
OVERNIGHT...THEN RETURN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 14Z WEDNESDAY. OVC
SKIES ARE LIKELY TO BE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY MID TOMORROW MORNING
WITH THE CIGS APPROACHING MVFR LEVELS BY THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS
FROM TIME TO TIME LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT...AND POSSIBLY SUN...IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPED TDA ALONG WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
JUST OFFSHORE...A PINCHED GRADIENT OVER MAINLY THE NRN SC WATERS
PRODUCED A QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS TO ARND 20 KT AT BOTH FBIS1 AND
KCHL. THESE ELEVATED WINDS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE CHS MARINE
AREA WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE HOURS AS THE TROUGH REACHES ITS
PEAK STRENGTH AND A WEAK FRONT STALLS NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
THE OFFSHORE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
FRONT BISECTS THE SC AND GA WATERS...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY
SETTLE AND MAKING WIND SPEEDS FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS IN CHAS
HARBOR. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
TMRW NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR RISING SEAS THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N LATE TMRW INTO TMRW NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS
TO SHIFT FROM ENE TO SE...HELPING IMPROVE THE FETCH FOR GROWING
SEAS. SEAS WILL EXCEED 6 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS BY LATE TMRW
MORNING...THEN GROW ABOVE 6 FT WITHIN ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BY TMRW
EVE. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED SCA HEADLINES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
/EXCEPT CHAS HARBOR/ FOR THE ELEVATED SEAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND A DECENT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRES INLAND WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AT LEAST OVER THE
GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM FROM SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS EARLY SUN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED.

RIP CURRENTS...HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED SOLID ONSHORE FLOW...UPCOMING NEW MOON
AND SMALL SWELLS /ARND 2 FT REACHING THE BEACHES/ WITH PERIODS OF
ARND 9 SECONDS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ELEVATED RISK OF RIP
CURRENT DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

JPC/RJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-
SCZ040-042>045-047-251000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM...INCLUDING
GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND JASPER-
402 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-251000-
COASTAL BRYAN-COASTAL CHATHAM-COASTAL LIBERTY-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
402 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2009

...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.