Cold arctic air filtered into Northeast Arkansas behind a cold front. During the early morning hours of March 12th, 2009, a low pressure system moved northeast along the cold front that was located across the Midsouth.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Cold arctic air filtered into Northeast Arkansas behind a cold front. During the early morning hours of March 12th, 2009, a low pressure system moved northeast along the cold front that was located across the Midsouth. Precipitation changed to freezing rain then to sleet and eventually to snow during the day. Some ice accumulations occurred as a result mainly on elevated surfaces.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 11, 11:33 PM CST, 27 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 907 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2009/
UPDATE...
CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOR UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT. DIFFICULT
FORECAST TELLING EXACTLY WHERE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP...AND
AT THIS TIME NO CHANGES TO GRIDS / ZONES. HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
FEW REPORTS OF SLEET IN EAST-CENTRAL AR...AND SLEET WAS BRIEFLY
REPORTED AT THE MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY SLEET IS
QUICKLY MELTING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE GRADUALLY PUSHING COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL AR BACK INTO NORTHEAST
TX. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO A
COMBINATION OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS
AREA BECOMES COLDER. WILL BE EXAMINING 00Z MODELS FOR ANY CHANGES.
JCL
DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 659 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2009
UPDATE...
INITIAL AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FASTER FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THAN EARLIER FORECAST. THIS AREA DOES APPEAR ON RADAR TO
BE DECREASING IN COVERAGE SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR.
NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS FOR THIS
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AR...SOUTHWEST TN...AND NORTHWEST MS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.
JCL
DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 357 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2009
CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY TODAY DUE TO CONSTANT
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
KENTUCKY/MISSOURI BORDER TO THE MID 40S IN THE MEMPHIS AREA TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH OF TUPELO. SCATTERED PRECIP COVERS THE MID SOUTH
THOUGH MOST OF THIS IS LIGHT. SOME REPORTS OF SLEET MIXING IN HAVE
BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE MID SOUTH DURING
THE DAY.
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...COMPLICATED WINTER WEATHER
SCENARIO SET TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. EXPECT A QUIET EVENING WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIP...MAYBE SOME SLEET ACROSS THE NORTH. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT YIELDING LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS WINTER WEATHER FORECAST. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL WRF WAS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH THE COLD AIR AND THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...A WORST CASE SCENARIO. THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS
WERE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND WARMER. AS A RESULT
WE HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE ROUTE AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTH. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM THESE ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS
BUT AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA IS JUST NOT
THERE.
AFTER MIDNIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
ARKLATEX REGION AND TOWARD THE MID SOUTH. AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP WILL START TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. BY SUNRISE
EXPECT A VARIETY OF WINTER PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. EXPECT A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF JONESBORO
TO PARIS...ABOUT 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. FROM INTERSTATE 40
NORTH TO THIS JONESBORO TO PARIS LINE EXPECT A MIX OF
FREEZING...SLEET AND SOME SNOW. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ABOUT TENTH INCH OR SO WITH ABOUT AN INCH OF SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SHELBY COUNTY WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS
ONE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SHELBY COUNTY ALONG WITH
OTHER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THAT ARE STILL IN THE ADVISORY
AREA ARE AT LESS RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTS. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
THURSDAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...FRONT REMAINS STUCK OVER THE GULF COAST
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS AT
LEAST NORTH MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.
AFTER SATURDAY THE FORECAST BECOMES MURKY. GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. KEEP A PRECIP CHANCES GOING ALONG WITH A COOL
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS BOTH MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT SPREADING RAIN INTO THE MID SOUTH.
PRECIP CHANCES START TO TAPER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN
UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL START TO MOVE
TOWARD NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WINTER WEATHER EVENT ABOUT TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER WILL OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN AT TUP AND RAIN MIXED AT TIMES
WITH SLEET AT MEM THROUGH THE MORNING. AT MKL EXPECT A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ON THURSDAY...WITH MAINLY SLEET CHANGING TO
SNOW AT JBR. NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MAJOR IMPACTS
TO AVIATION SERVICES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE FROM CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS TO IFR
AT MOST LOCATIONS BY MORNING. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME OCCASIONAL LIFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY DROP TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW AT JBR.
AS FOR WINDS...THEY SHOULD STAY STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 32 44 40 50 / 60 50 80 40
MKL 32 43 40 49 / 70 40 70 50
JBR 30 43 37 46 / 60 30 60 50
TUP 37 49 44 54 / 60 80 90 50
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-
LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-MADISON-OBION-WEAKLEY.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 640 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2009 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-121100- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 640 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND EVENTUALLY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS NORTH OF A JONESBORO ARKANSAS...TO DYERSBURG TENNESSEE...TO PARIS TENNESSEE LINE CAN EXPECT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THIS LINE BUT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 CAN EXPECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH AS WELL AS UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE WINTER WEATHER...PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER... PLEASE REPORT ANY ICE...SLEET...OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS. JCL/KNS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter weather, 1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A mixture of rain, freezing rain and sleet occurred across Poinsett County. Sleet accumulations around a tenth of an inch occurred on elevated surfaces.
A mixture of rain and sleet occurred across Craighead County. Sleet accumulations around a tenth of an inch occurred on elevated surfaces.
Rain changed over to freezing rain across Mississippi County. Ice accumulations of a quarter inch were reported on elevated surfaces near Manila.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2009Every state in 2009This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, March 2009
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 159359, 159360, 159361.