High Wind in Alaska, November 30, 2009

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
515 AM AKST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK AS A 960 MB LOW 150 MILES NORTH OF ATKA
ISLAND MOVES TO NEAR DUTCH HARBOR THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO BRISTOL
BAY BY LATE TUESDAY.  THIS WILL BRING WIND AND SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
WEST COAST AND A STRONG CHINOOK TO THE INTERIOR.

ALOFT...THERE IS A DEEP LOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL ALSO PUSH
EAST AND WEAKEN AND WILL PHASE WITH AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CHUKCHI SEA. BY TUESDAY A TROUGH ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM OF
THE TROUGH THERE WILL BE A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC NORTH THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND EXTREME EASTERN ALASKA.

INTERIOR...AN EXCELLENT SET UP FOR A STRONG CHINOOK AS THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE EAST AND DEEP
TROUGH TO THE WEST.  THIS WILL PRODUCE VERY GOOD SUPPORT BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE NORMALLY FAVORED SPOTS.
WILL UPGRADE THE HIGH WIND WATCHES TO WARNINGS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AK RANGE TODAY WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ZONE (227) NEAR THE AK RANGE.  WILL ALSO ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 223 FOR THE NORMAL WINDY SPOTS SOUTH OF
BIRCH LAKE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING SOME WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THE
TALKEETNA WIND PROFILER SHOWED A RAPID INCREASE IN THE WIND FROM
06-12Z AND AND ANTLER CREEK WENT FROM NEARLY CALM WIND TO 50 MPH
GUSTS IN AN HOUR. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE CHINOOK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO UNDER-DO THE AMOUNT OF WARMING ALOFT...AND STILL
LOOKING FOR TEMPS ON THE HILLS AROUND FAIRBANKS TO CLIMB TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING. LIKEWISE THE PASSES
IN THE AK RANGE SHOULD HAVE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 30S AND PERHAPS AS
WARM AS THE LOW 40S. THE CHINOOK FLOW WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR DOWN-SLOPED AND DRY WITH SOME SNOW PUSHING INTO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY. THE OTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW ON THE SUMMITS AND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HAVE BEEFED UP THE WORDING A BIT...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR
THE SUMMITS ON THE STEESE...ELLIOT...AND DALTON HIGHWAYS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

WEST COAST...SNOW AND WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES...WITH THE SNOW MAKING IT ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS
UNALAKLEET AND KALTAG BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD TO THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT. THE ONGOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LOOK GOOD AND WILL
ADD ZONE 216 INTO THE MIX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME HEAVIER SNOWFALL ALONG THE NULATO HILLS.
WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE ADVISORIES ANY FURTHER NORTH INTO
THE NOATAK VALLEY AS THE SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...BUT
LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED AN ADVISORY IN ZONE 217 FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE WIND SHOULD PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW...BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AS IT REMAINS A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOR A TIME.

NORTH SLOPE...THE MOST BENIGN WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WITH TYPICAL AREAS OF STATUS AND
FLURRIES. AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR SNOW ALONG PARTS OF THE WESTERN
AND ARCTIC COAST AND ABOUT AS FAR EAST AS BARROW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA INTO THE
KOTZEBUE SOUND THAT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH TODAY. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE...AND THEN SPREAD NORTH AND WEST TO THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH AND AN
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM THE LOW
IN BRISTOL BAY.

MID-RANGE...MODEL AGREEMENT IS MUCH BETTER THAN IT WAS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN AGAIN THAT IS NOT SAYING MUCH AS THERE HAS
BEEN WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS AND LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.  THE
MODELS SEEMS MORE LOCKED IN WITH A PATTERN THAT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLES GRADUALLY LIFT
THIS RIDGE NORTH NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF
ALL THIS PANS OUT THE STRONG RIDGE SHOULD ACT TO PUT THE BREAKS ON
PACIFIC STORMS INCLUDING THE REMAINS OF TYPHOON NIDA FROM HAVING
MUCH IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AK. THE RIDGING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE SOME WIND ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
THE BERING STRAIT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LARGE TEMP SPREADS FROM
THE VALLEYS UNDER STRONG INVERSIONS...AND THE MORE ELEVATED
TERRAIN COULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

CB NOV 09