Extreme Cold in Alaska, February 10, 2009

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1253 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL CLEAR SKIES BEHIND
THE TROUGH AND ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET. AREAS OF VERY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST
OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WELL NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST
BY 60 HOURS AS NEXT DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST THIS WILL DEVELOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.

OLD OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN TO THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE THE APPROACHING NEW LOW IN THE
BERING SEA ON THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
LOW WILL PUSH ONTO THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES APPEAR AT THIS TIME
TO REMAIN WELL COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM
OF SNOW AND IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD
BEGINNING THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY WAIT THE NEXT MODEL
RUN TO SEE IF CHANGES IN THINKING DEVELOP. IF CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...BLIZZARD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD
BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

CF FEB 09