Wisconsin, 2008

Heavy Rain in Wisconsin, September 12 to 14, 2008

September 12 to 14, 2008 · NWS MKX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

For the second time in one month, the remnants of a hurricane affected Southcentral and Southeast Wisconsin with heavy rains. Rainfall amounts were on the order of 1 to 3 inches.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.

For the second time in one month, the remnants of a hurricane affected Southcentral and Southeast Wisconsin with heavy rains. Rainfall amounts were on the order of 1 to 3 inches. The center of Hurricane Ike's remnants tracked into southeastern Missouri, then to central Indiana, and then to western Lake Ontario and then to the mouth of the St. Lawrence River.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 12, 2:01 PM CST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 12, 2:01 PM CST, 2 hours 59 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
301 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITIES SUNDAY WITH
THE REMNANTS OF IKE AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONE IS THE
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND THE OTHER IS THE
EVENTUAL PATH OF IKE. FIRST THING IS FIRST...THE HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT. MANY THINGS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT
LATER TONIGHT. ONE IS THE RICH MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND HURRICANE IKE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.3 INCHES LATER
TONIGHT. THESE ARE NEAR RECORD NUMBERS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ALSO RISE TO NEAR 13.5 KFT...WITH NEAR COMPLETE
SATURATION TO 25 KFT MAKING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY VERY HIGH.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE ELEMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS A 50 KNOT LLJ POINTED
RIGHT TOWARD SOUTHERN WI AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET OVER THE AREA. ALSO...MBE VELOCITIES FALL TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS LATE...FAVORING SLOW MOVING TORRENTIAL RAIN BANDS. THE AREA
OF STRONG 925-850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DOES SWING THROUGH
WITHIN 6-9 HOURS...BUT DURING THAT TIME THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
BE OCCURRING.

6-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. THESE AREN/T EXTRAORDINARY VALUES TO
INDICATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...HOWEVER ONE WOULD THINK IT
WOULDN/T NECESSARILY TAKE THIS MUCH TO MAKE THE GROUND SATURATED
AGAIN AFTER GUSTAV/S RAIN LAST WEEK. A RUN THROUGH THE LOCAL
FLASH FLOOD CHECKLIST SHOWS ALL ELEMENTS COME OUT AS VERY
FAVORABLE EXCEPT FOR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. QPF ON ALL THE
MODELS AVERAGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES BY 21Z SATURDAY...WITH THE
NEW 12Z HI-RES ECMWF BRINGING 3 TO 3.5 INCHES. GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DYNAMICS...I CERTAINLY HAVE THE
REQUIRED 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL NEEDED FOR A WATCH DESPITE
HIGH FFG NUMBERS. THUS...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM 05Z TONIGHT THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY. IT
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD A TAD THIS EVENING SHOULD IT
APPEAR THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF RAIN SETS UP IN THAT DIRECTION.

AFTER THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A LULL IN RAIN
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THAT TIME AND SUNDAY MORNING. THEN THE CENTER
OF IKE SHOULD MAKE HIS WAY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. VERY HEAVY RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STORM
COULD BRING MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IF IT
TRACKS FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUED TO SHOW A
WESTWARD JOG...AS DID THE CANADIAN. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE THE
FURTHEST WEST WITH A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE TWO
MODELS ARE OFTEN PREFERRED TO HANDLE TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE ECMWF
INSISTS ON AN EASTERLY TRACK. THE TREND FOR CUT OFF SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS IS TO ALWAYS TRACK FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY
PROJECT...THEREFORE I INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST AND TAPERED IT OFF TO THE WEST. THE MOST CONCERNING
THING LIES WITH THE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FORECASTS FROM THE
HURRICANE MODELS WHICH INDICATE 5+ INCHES COULD COME WITH IKE. IKE
IS A MASSIVE STORM WITH LOADS OF MOISTURE. STAY TUNED...

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST
FOR NEXT WEEK. MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT TAF
SITES...WITH SOME VFR AT TIMES AT KMKE AND KMSN. MAIN AREA OF IFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN SHIELD ENTER TAF SITES
AROUND 04Z TO 05Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
BEST UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS FROM 09Z TO 15Z SATURDAY...AS LOW
LEVEL JET NOSE AND FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
VLIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MID
EVENING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE HEAVY RAIN
BANDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS MAY GUST TO 22 KNOTS AT
TIMES...WITH THOSE WINDS JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DO NOT
EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ISSUANCE.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS COMES ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANTS OF IKE PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR WIZ062>072.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 12, 3:02 PM CST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
402 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-130915-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
402 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LONE ROCK...TO WATERTOWN...TO BAYSIDE LINE. HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. THE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND STREAMS. SEE THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A
LONE ROCK...TO WATERTOWN...TO BAYSIDE LINE. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND STREAMS. SEE
THE FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF IKE MAY BRING MORE HEAVY RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 43. THIS MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD
BE APPRECIATED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

LMZ643>646-130915-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
402 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WAVES MAY REMAIN HIGH INTO MONDAY.

WOOD

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Jefferson

When
September 12, 5:00 PM CST to September 14, 5:00 PM CST
Where
Jefferson County, 2.38 mi SSW of Palmyra to 3.39 mi SSE of Sullivan
Reported by
COOP Observer
Coordinates
42.846, -88.611

Although this heavy rain event was assigned to Jefferson County, the heavy rain also affected parts of the following counties: Waukesha, Milwaukee, Rock, Walworth, Racine, and Kenosha. Ponding of water on roads and in other low spots was reported in many locations. Rainfall amounts include: 3.01 at the NWS Office about 3.8SSE of Sullivan (Jefferson Co.), 2.28 at 1.2SW of Palmyra, 2.60 at Beloit College (Rock Co.), 2.48 in Pell Lake (Walworth Co.), 2.46 in Paddock Lake (Kenosha Co.), 2.37 in Waterford (Racine Co.), 2.11 at 2SE Waukesha (Waukesha Co.), and 1.81 at Milwaukee Mitchell Field (Milwaukee Co.). Rainfall amounts tapered off to 1 to 1.25 in the Madison (Dane Co.) to Sheboygan area (Sheboygan Co.).

What these are

Heavy Rain
Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Wisconsin in 2008Every state in 2008This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, September 2008

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 135504.