Flood in Wisconsin, June 8, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...AREA CURRENTLY ENJOYING A LULL IN THE PCPN. RAIN-
COOLED AIR FM MORNING MCS COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE DEBRIS FIELD
HELD TEMPS BACK...SO LOCAL MESO ANALYSIS PLOTS THIS AFTN SHOWED
RATHER STABLE AIR ACRS THE AREA. ATM WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
RECOVERING BACK TO THE WEST. SHRTWV EJECTING TOWARD THE AREA FM
THE PLAINS WAS LEADING TO AN INCR AND SLGT BACKING OF 850 MB FLOW.
CONVECTION WAS FIRING IN A NNE/SSW BAND ALONG THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN IA...AND IN AN E-W BAND NEAR THE MN/IA BORDER. THOSE TWO
AREAS OF PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND POSSIBLY MERGE INTO
ANOTHER MCS WHICH WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FCST AREA TNGT. MODELS TENDED
TO TAKE THE PCPN MAX NE ACRS THE NW PART OF THE FCST AREA. THAT
DID NOT FIT WITH RADAR TRENDS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER RISK
OF HEAVY RAIN ACRS THE SE 2/3 OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES HAD SOME FLOODING THIS MORNING...BUT AT LEAST HAVE HAD
SEVERAL HOURS TO ALLOW THE WATER TO RUN-OFF OR SOAK IN. BUT NEW
RAINS OVER THOSE AREAS COULD LEAD TO A MORE SERIOUS FLOODING
SITUATION. SO WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA.
CONFINED WATCH TO THAT AREA SINCE THE REST OF THE AREA DID NOT GET
AS MUCH RAIN THIS MORNING.

DETAILS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST STILL TOUGH TO PIN-DOWN. COULD
MAKE A CASE FOR PCPN IN JUST ABOUT ANY FCST PERIOD...BUT TRIED TO
FOCUS CHCS IN PERIODS WITH THE BEST CHCS. PCPN WL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SETS-UP CLOSE TO THE AREA MID-WK
AS WEAK CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS SWD TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR. THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A BREAK BEFORE NEXT STG UPR SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS
GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE PCPN. PREFERRED THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF
WHICH HAD SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN MODEL. THE 12Z GFS TRENDED IN
THAT DIRECTION.
&&

.AVIATION...SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TNGT AS NEXT MCS
MOVES INTO THE AREA.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
WIZ045-048>050-

&&

SKOWRONSKI/ESB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-091300-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHEAST IOWA TO
PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY EARLY EVENING.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. LOCAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM
EARLIER HEAVY RAINS. THERE IS ALSO A LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM ABOUT GREEN BAY
TO MARSHFIELD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER
THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE OR NOT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-091300-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF ALGOMA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A
LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER
THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE OR NOT.