Hail and Damaging Winds in West Virginia, June 10, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONE STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PREDAWN
CONVECTION IN EASTERN OHIO...NOW PROMPTING TORNADO WATCH 499 IN
THE NORTHEAST.

ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER AIR TROF IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCREASE
IN CLOUDS IN EASTERN OHIO AND THE TRI STATE AROUND HUNTINGTON.
THE NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION NEARING OHIO WESTERN BORDER WAS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF.

THE ATMOSPHERE HAS NOT SHOWN ITS HAND AS OF 15Z. BUT THINKING WE
MAY HAVE 2 ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...ONE DEVELOPING IN OUR CWA 16-18Z
AND ANOTHER NARROW BAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SO I DELAYED THE DROP OFF IN POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON 20-23Z
SINCE THAT IS WHEN I HAVE THE FRONT IN OUR VCNTY. LOWERED THE
POPS SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER SRN COUNTIES.

LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW WEAKENING FROM THE 06-15Z PERIOD. FOR
EXAMPLE WE HAD 40 KNOTS AT 5 THSD MSL ON RLX 88D BUT AT 15Z NOW 30
KNOTS.  BUT STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

LIKE OUR IDEA OF INCLUDING SOME FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AT DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT
REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN U.S...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS
BEFORE. THIS TIME...THE CENTER WILL BE EAST OF US...WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE FLOW. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HELP
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTING
NORTHWARD IN THE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
FORM WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND OF A DIURNAL NATURE. AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING SOMEWHAT...WILL ONLY TARGET THE
MOUNTAINS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT NOT AS HOT AS THIS
PAST EPISODE AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AND A BIT
MORE MOISTURE AROUND. LOOK FOR HIGH MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE THROUGH BY AFTERNOON USING THE CURRENT TIMING...HAVE HELD
THE CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL
LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT.  NEXT FRONT COMING THROUGH LATER MONDAY
TIME FRAME BUT UPPER WAVE COMING FROM WEST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY IN AREA THROUGH TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE
SHOWERS FROM LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE
WITH UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION GOING TO MOVE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS IS SUMMER SO WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLAY BUT THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FROM THIS WEEK SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS IN SHORT LINES 18Z THRU ABOUT 22Z...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.
FLOW IS WEAKENING SO CELL MOVEMENT HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS.  BRIEF IFR AND LIFR IN STORMS.

MAIN PROBLEM IS FORECASTING FOG OVERNIGHT. WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...STILL PREFER FORECASTING LIFR AND IFR IN
FOG EXCEPT OVER SOUTHERN PLATEAU VCNTY BKW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND 12Z. HAVE SCT TO BKN CU BKW VCNTY ON S
AFTER 15Z.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KTB
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...AAR
AVIATION...KTB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-110800-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
349 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

WVZ033-101800-
MCDOWELL WV-
134 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2008

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 134 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER WEST CENTRAL MCDOWELL
COUNTY...OR ABOUT 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRUNDY...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  AVONDALE...JOLO...IAEGER...DAVY AND BRADSHAW.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

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