High Wind in Texas, March 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
250 PM MDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. WIND SPEEDS SO FAR HAVE REMAINED AT
ADVISORY LEVELS OF 30 TO 4O MPH BUT STILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO
REACH WARNING LEVELS OF GREATER THAN 40 MPH SUSTAINED BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL KEEP EXISTING HIGH WIND WARNING
IN PLACE UNTIL IT EXPIRES AT 9 PM LOCAL TIME. BLOWING DUST IS
BECOMING THICKER BUT DUE TO THE WESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS
MAY NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MUCH LOWER THAN 2 MILES. THE DUST
WILL DIMINISH AS THE WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY WILL IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING IN
THE BREEZY TO LOW WINDY LEVELS WITH LITTLE TO NO DUST. A CHANGE
WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FROM THE WEST COAST. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO. ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COLD POOL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR RAIN REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WITH
THIS SYSTEM. MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE MAY BE DEFLECTED
SOUTH AND EAST BY THE LOWS LARGE CIRCULATION...SO MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE SPOTTY. THE SYSTEM IS
FAIRLY COLD SO SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 4500 FEET MONDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY STAY ON THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MOUTNAIN ZONES.

FOR EARLY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST UNTIL MID DAY TUESDAY. AFTERWARDS...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS PART OF WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK UP TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMALS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 15/00Z-16/00Z
GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBIILITIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BLOWING DUST AND SAND WILL REDUCE VSBYS MVFR FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING WINDS DROP THE DUST.
MODERATE TO HEAVY TURBULENCE IN THE VICINITY AND DOWNSTREAM OF
LOCAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BLOWING DUST IS
OCCURRING IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE REGION. THE RED FLAG WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING...BUT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED DEPENDING ON HOW THE WINDS BEHAVE. SATURDAY WINDS WILL
BE BREEZY BUT NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY. A LOW COMING DOWN FROM
NEVADA WILL RETURN STRONG WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL AS A
CHANCE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 50  76  51  77  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
SIERRA BLANCA TX        44  75  47  77  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              44  76  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              43  74  44  71  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOUDCROFT              28  54  28  51  23 /   0   0   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   41  74  43  67  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
SILVER CITY             37  69  36  56  31 /   0   0   0  10  20
DEMING                  42  76  44  68  39 /   0   0   0   0  20
LORDSBURG               44  75  43  65  38 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ022>025-
     030>032.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

04/04