Tornadoes and Hail in Alabama, March 14 to 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
324 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

VERY COMPLEX SCENARIO TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONGOING ISOLATED
AREAS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL BEHAVED. A SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE SEVERE
THREAT IS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE REALLY
SPIKED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S OUT WEST. STILL HAVE A
LITTLE MORE TIME FOR HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SO STILL MAY SEE SOME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CLEARING TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT...BUT HERE IS THE
OVERALL THOUGHTS.

FROM AROUND 9 PM TIL 1 AM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
AFTER THAT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN THE DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THIS MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE
CHANCES WILL THEN TRANSITION EASTWARD SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...BEFORE
LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER NOON. WEST WINDS WILL THEN
KICK IN AND TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO EVEN MID 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTH.

16

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOL ADVECTION AFFECTING THE AREA. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...AS THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUESDAY AS THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/WESTERN ARKANSAS...CAUSING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUSH HIGHS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE WEST
AND SOUTH NEARING 80 DEGREES.

AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY. DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING STILL EXISTS.
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE TRICKY...AS
THEY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. BUT NOT EXPECTING A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND LOWS IN THE LOW
40S.

14

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VERY COMPLICATED PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE 24 HOURS. THE FIRST LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE EXITED THE TAF SITES...MEANWHILE A SECOND
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE
AGAIN SUPPLY MOST TAF SITES WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AND WILL SEE A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SHOT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAFS AFTER 15Z AS A DEVELOPING
MCS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TENNESSEE AND SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
GRAZE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALABAMA.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     52  74  42  65  45 /  40  60  10   0   0
ANNISTON    54  77  42  68  42 /  30  50  10   0   0
BIRMINGHAM  57  77  41  67  45 /  50  40  10   0   0
TUSCALOOSA  57  82  43  69  47 /  50  20  10   0  10
CALERA      56  79  42  68  46 /  40  30  10   0   0
AUBURN      56  79  43  68  43 /  10  30  10   0   0
MONTGOMERY  59  83  46  71  48 /  20  20  10   0   0
TROY        56  83  47  73  47 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
518 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

ALZ048-142300-
RUSSELL-
518 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HATCHECHUBBE...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LADONIA...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  HATCHECHUBBE.
  UCHEE CREEK.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.