Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, March 14 to 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
207 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.MESOSCALE ANALYSIS...
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG SFC TROF CONVERGENCE
ACROSS NW AL AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKS E.  SFC WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY AND TEMPS HEAT UP INTO THE 70S W OF THE TROF ACROSS MS.
THETA-E AXIS RUNS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE TROF WITH SBCAPES VIA
LAPS ANALYSIS HAVE CLIMBED TO 1000-1200 J/KG NOSING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SHOALS. 0-1KM SRH WAS SITTING AROUND 120
M2/S2...SO WATCHING FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.
HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH UPDRAFTS LIKELY SUPPORTING
NO MORE THAN SMALL HAIL.  A COOL FRONT WAS ALSO DROPPING SE INTO
MIDDLE TN THROUGH N MS AND SOUTHERN AR. WITH UPPER SUPPORT
EXITING...THIS FRONT SHOULD DO LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS IT
SAGS SOUTH...AND REDEVELOPS IN PRESSURE FALL ZONE OVER N MS AND AL.
THE FRONT AT THIS HOUR IS DRAPED WEST TO THE NEW LOW TAKING SHAPE
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CONVECTION REMAINING THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY HAVE DIED OR MOVED
OFF TO THE E.  THUS...LOOKING FOR A DRY EVENING.  WE WILL BE
WATCHING EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT RE-DEVELOPS AS PRESSURE FALLS
EMERGE FROM APPROACHING SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A POWERFUL
UL JET STREAM OF 120+ WAS ALREADY DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SW AND
WILL INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING OVER
OK/TX.  THIS SHOULD INSTIGATE CONVECTION AND EVENTUALLY AN MCS.

AHEAD OF THIS MCS...SUPERCELL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP NOCTURNALLY
WITH THE LLJ PRODUCING INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ALONG OR JUST NE OF THE WARM FRONT.  THIS FRONT SHOULD LIE FROM
CENTRAL AR INTO N MS...AND NW AL...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY HERE...WHICH COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE ON THE THREAT
AREA.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL.  TIMING FOR OUR COUNTIES...MAINLY SW
OF A MSL-DCU-8A0 LINE WOULD BE 09-12Z...THEN SHIFTING NE.

THERE IS QUESTION WHETHER THESE STORMS WILL INITIATE SURFACE BASED
OR NOT...THUS DETERMINING THE TORNADO THREAT.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
BECOME STRONGLY CURVED IN THE LOWER 1-2KM...THUS OUR CONCERN FOR
ISOLATED...BUT PERHAPS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  PREVIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAD PREDICTED A ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION AND EML...BUT
LATER SOLUTIONS ARE NOT SO STRONG.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ELEVATED...BUT AFTER DAYBREAK...COULD
BECOME SFC BASED RATHER QUICKLY WITH LOWERING LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AS
WELL.  WE SUSPECT THE CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE SAT
MORNING...WITH THE APPROACHING MCS TRACKING EWD ALONG THE STRONG
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY ALONG AND JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT.  THE 18Z HSV
SOUNDING SUPPORTS A TORNADIC THREAT GIVEN 0-3KM CAPE OVER 300
J/KG...AND TOTAL CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG...AND 6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
70KT.  SIG SVR PARAMETER FROM THE 09Z SREF SHOWED VALUES OF
20000-30000 IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS TIME AS WELL.  AFTER
15Z...THE THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST ALONG AND E OF I-65.  IF THE
SYSTEM SLOWS...WARM SECTOR CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP ALONG SFC TROF
CONVERGENCE IN NE INTO CENTRAL AL.
&&

.LONG TERM AND EXTENDED...
LONGER TERM FORECAST WAS LEFT ABOUT AS IS WRT THE SYSTEM EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND NOT PHASED WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM...WHILE THE GFS PHASES AND BRINGS A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE TUE-WED.  FORECASTERS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT COULD BRING A
SIGNIFICANT BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  73  44  64 /  60  70  10  10
SHOALS        55  71  42  65 /  70  60  10  10
CULLMAN       55  72  43  65 /  60  60  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  53  69  41  62 /  60  80  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   54  71  45  65 /  50  60  10  10
FORT PAYNE    53  70  45  65 /  50  70  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KULA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
107 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-150200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
107 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY.
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  WE ANTICIPATE INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA
TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A MUSCLE SHOALS TO DECATUR TO
GUNTERSVILLE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...AGAIN CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE
STORMS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AS GUSTY WEST WINDS INCREASE
TO 15 TO 30 MPH.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SL/AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
359 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

ALZ006>008-142145-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MORGAN-
359 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN MADISON...NORTHERN
MARSHALL AND NORTHEAST MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TRIANA...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF MADISON...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  TRIANA.
  VALHERMOSO SPRINGS.
  LACEY SPRINGS.
  MORGAN CITY.
  OWENS CROSSROADS.
  NEW HOPE.
  GRANT.

CBD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
521 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

ALZ008-010-142300-
DE KALB-MARSHALL-
521 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DEKALB AND MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR UNION GROVE TO
FYFFE...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  WHITON.
  CHIGGER HILL.
  LAKEVIEW.
  SKIRUM.
  GUEST.
  PEEKS CORNER.

CBD