Flash Flood and Hail in Texas, June 25, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
308 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL
TO THE NORTH. CURRENTLY WE ARE LOCATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING...WITH ONE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND ANOTHER OVER FLORIDA. THIS KEEPS TEXAS IN THE
PATH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE NORTHERN
MEXICO RIDGE.

MCV WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES
TODAY IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND BEING SHEARED OUT AS IT DOES SO. A
FEW STORMS HAVE ERUPTED PARTIALLY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ALONG THE COMPLEXS NORTHERN EDGE...FROM NEAR JACKSBORO TO NOCONA.
OTHERWISE THE MOST LIKELY SPOT FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE A HEALTHY CU FIELD
HAS DEVELOPED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS AND
EASTWARD MOVING MVC...CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS ANYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS OVER THE NW AND SE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE THROUGH 00Z.

LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE IN PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MOISTURE
QUALITY IS HIGHEST. BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS AS
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST. THE RESULT
WILL BE A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY
OF THE RED RIVER...AIDING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TUESDAY. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF AREAS NORTH OF I-20
STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING RAIN WITH THIS EVENT.  SH/13

&&

.CLIMATE...

HEAVY DEW RESULTED IN ERRONEOUS PRECIPITATION AT WACO REGIONAL
AIRPORT ON JUNE 10. THERE WAS NO RAINFALL THAT DAY.

THE CORRECTED JUNE PRECIPITATION TOTAL FOR WACO IS 0.07 INCHES. THE
TOTAL FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR IS 16.82 INCHES.

WEBPAGES HAVE BEEN AMENDED...AND ALL FUTURE DAILY CLIMATE REPORTS
(CLIACT) WILL REFLECT THIS ADJUSTMENT.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  97  77  95  77 /  10  10   5   5  10
WACO, TX              77  97  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             72  93  72  94  74 /  20  30  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            74  96  77  96  77 /  20  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          73  96  76  94  76 /  20  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            78  96  79  96  78 /  10  10   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           75  94  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  94  74  93  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            75  93  74  94  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
316 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW WILL REACH STRONG TO SEVERE
LIMITED THROUGH SUNSET STRONG WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THIS TIME.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED RIVER AND
OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS NAMELY THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH SUNSET FOR
ISOLATED...STRONG STORMS CONTAINING DOWNBURSTS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
208 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ091-251945-
MONTAGUE TX-
208 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 208 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF NOCONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
14 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE VALLEY VIEW.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3397 9760 3391 9758 3391 9749 3372 9780
      3384 9790 3389 9780 3399 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 225DEG 12KT 3384 9776

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

TXZ091-252015-
MONTAGUE TX-
241 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 241 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOWIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
6 MPH. ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE ALSO LOCATED WEST OF NOCONA AND
NORTH OF SPANISH FORT.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BOWIE...NOCONA AND
STONEBURG.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3397 9760 3390 9757 3390 9749 3344 9782
      3344 9798 3374 9798 3388 9782 3389 9780
      3393 9776 3400 9767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 203DEG 5KT 3359 9787

82/JLD