Wildfire in Texas, January 14, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
248 PM CST MON JAN 14 2008

.SHORT TERM...SOME WELL-NEEDED RAIN IS IN THE OFFING OVER THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLOSED LOW OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO OPENING UP AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS TEXAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT MAINTAINING A VERY STABLE LOWER LAYER. THIS WILL
RESULT IN GRADUALLY LOWERING OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LIGHT RAIN COMMENCING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FINALLY
BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE PRECIP. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
SLOWED DOWN VERSION OF THE GFS TIMING...WITH INCREASING POPS
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT PROGRESSING FROM WEST
TO EAST...THEN PRECIP BECOMING MORE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST AS A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND TAKES OVER. KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR
GUIDANCE...CLOSING UP DIURNAL RANGES SOMEWHAT GIVEN THICK CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE OUT WEST...CREATING MVFR
VSBYS. OTHERWISE NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OUT WEST AS
THE LOW APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...SCA EXTENDED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO STAY UP OFFSHORE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND ESPECIALLY AS
THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF ARE NOW
A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE S/WV OVER SOUTH TEXAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN/NAM ARE SLOWER WITH THESE
FEATURES. DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF LIKELY
POPS NORTHEAST GRADED TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IN THE
MORNING TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE COASTAL LOW WILL GENERATE HIGH-END
SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 11 FEET SEAS
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT FRONT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE COASTAL LOW
STRENGTHENS. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST A FROPA THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GHOST 10 POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERRUNNING ONLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THAT PERIOD. REINFORCING
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
SUBSIDENT NWLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH TEXAS. SUBSIDENT
REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY. THINK THE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND SUBSEQUENT POPS. WILL SIDE WITH
THE RELATIVELY TAME MOISTURE FIELDS OF THE ECMWF AND SHOW A
MORE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH STREAMER SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE GULF/COASTAL COUNTIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ONLY
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS BELOW
NORMAL READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    51  59  47  61  45  /  10  50  90  50  10
VICTORIA          44  60  46  55  42  /  10  50  80  70  10
LAREDO            48  54  44  66  47  /  40  70  70  20  10
ALICE             47  59  47  62  43  /  30  50  80  40  10
ROCKPORT          52  61  47  58  47  /  10  50  90  70  10
COTULLA           44  56  46  64  41  /  20  50  70  20  10
KINGSVILLE        49  59  47  62  43  /  20  50  90  50  10
NAVY CORPUS       55  61  50  61  47  /  10  50  90  50  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

JV/71...SHORT TERM
TM/95...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
553 AM CST MON JAN 14 2008

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-151200-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
553 AM CST MON JAN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
TODAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEARSHORE AND
OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW.

A COASTAL TROUGH AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES FROM THE
COASTAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE COAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT ANTICIPATED

87/85

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
158 PM CST MON JAN 14 2008

TXZ229>234-239>247-150430-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...ENCINAL...TILDEN...
GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...SKIDMORE...GOLIAD...
VICTORIA...LAREDO...RIO BRAVO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...PREMONT...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...ROBSTOWN...
PORT ARANSAS...PORTLAND...INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...
MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA...
PORT OCONNOR...SEADRIFT
158 PM CST MON JAN 14 2008

...SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO ON TUESDAY WILL CROSS
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COASTAL LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THIS
DISTURBANCE. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...AND
BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE
COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST WITH NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINING BETWEEN 20 AND 25
MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 MPH.

THE RAIN AND WIND WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

TM/BB