High Wind in Texas, February 16, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
945 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.DISCUSSION...INTERESTING SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR SOUTH TX OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. IR SATL IMAGERY AND THE 500 MB RUC HEIGHTS
INDICATE THE 500 MB LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR THE EL PASO AREA WITH THE
MSL FIELDS SHOWING A BROAD SURFACE LOW POSITIONED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS MORNINGS BRO SOUNDING SHOWS AN DECENT CAPE
AROUND 2464 J/KG WITH A SRH AROUND 416. HOWEVER...THE PWAT VALUE
REMAINS PRETTY PARCHED WITH A VALUE ONLY AROUND 1.2 INCHES. FURTHER
EXAMINATION OF THE SOUNDING SHOWS THE MOST SATURATED LEVELS CONFINED
TO THE LAYERS BELOW 850 MB. THE SOUNDING WIND FIELD SHOWS A STRONG
40 TO 50 KT LLJ EVIDENT FROM AROUND 2 TO 5 KFT WITH A STRONG SW FLOW
EVIDENT ABOVE THE 8 KFT LEVEL. AS THIS 500 MB LOW SHIFTS EAST...THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR DEEP SOUTH TX WILL BE THE POTENTIAL CONV INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND UVV MOVE INTO
CENTRAL TX. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND WRF MODELS ALL REMAIN FAIRLY
SCEPTICAL FOR THE CONV CHCS ACROSS THE LOWER RGV...WITH THE GUIDANCE
SHOWING MUCH BETTER POPS FOR THE CRP AND HGX AREAS CLOSER TO THE
BETTER DYNAMICS. ACCORDINGLY...SPC MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK OF SVR
WX FOR THE CRP AND HGX AREAS WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO
CWA PLACED IN A SLGT RISK. BELIEVE THAT THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE
THAT WHEN THE CONV INITIATES OVER CENTRAL TX WILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE BE IN PLACE OVER THE BRO CWA TO ALLOW FORMATION TO
EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE LOWER RGV? CONSIDERING THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FACTORS...WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING POP ALIGNMENT AS IS AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR WX IN THE
CURRENT ZFP WORDING. CONCERNING OTHER ADVISORIES IN PLACE...THE
STRONG LLJ ALOFT WILL LIKELY MIX ON DOWN TO THE SURFACE PUSHING THE
WINDS INTO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.  WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TX INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...BUOY 42020 LOCATED 50 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS
CHRISTI REPORTED SE WINDS AT 17 KTS A WAVE HEIGHT OF 4.6 FT AND A
DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 0750 AM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE 8 FOOT WAVES IN THE OPEN
OCEAN AND 4-6 FEET OVER THE OPEN BEACHES OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AND WILL REACH A
MINIMUM OF 4 FEET OVER THE OPEN WATERS BY 06Z MONDAY FEB 18. A DEEP
TROF OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PROVIDE A WIDE FETCH OF WINDS OVER THE
GULF WHICH WILL INCREASE THE WAVE HEIGHTS FOR OUR OPEN WATERS MONDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. 4-6 WAVES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
BEACHES AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSING DIRECTLY TO OUR NORTH
TODAY WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY...WITH GUSTINESS...RESULTING IN TURBULENCE NEAR THE GROUND.
TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME
STRONG WITH SLIGHT RISK SEVERE.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY TXZ250-251-253>257 FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST
RED FLAG WARNING TXZ248>257 FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ130-132-135 FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ150-155-170-175 FROM 6 AM TO MIDNIGHT CST
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SHORT TERM FORECAST GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE/FXC/FXC.HTM

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...53
MESO/FXC...VEGA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
453 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

TXZ248>257-171100-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
453 AM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO AN APPROACHING FRONT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. A
SLIGHT RISK MEANS THAT A SMALL NUMBER OF WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAIL...
LIGHTNING...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

DURING THE DAY...STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO OVER 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT...A WIND ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

ALSO...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY DUE TO THE WIND AND CURED FUEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MARINE AREAS THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES IN THE NORTH GULF. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE NORTH
GULF AND BUILDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.