Lightning Strikes in Arkansas, February 16, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
605 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

.AVIATION...
WARM FNT WAS LOCATED OVR SRN AR ATTM. IFR/LIFR CONDS PREVAIL N OF
THE BNDRY AND EXPECT THIS TO CONT MOST OF THE EVENING AS THE BNDRY
WORKS VERY SLOLY NWD. IFR TO OCNL MVFR CONDS WL BE FOUND OVR SRN
AR EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WORKS NEWD INTO
THE AREA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS WL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS ACRS THE SRN HALF OF AR TNGT. SFC LOW TO OUR W WL
HEAD NEWD LATER TNGT AND INTO SUN. GRADIENT WL INCRS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HRS AS WINDS VEER TO THE SE AND S LATER TNGT...THEN TO
THE SW AND W ON SUN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYS. MVFR CIGS WL PREVAIL
LATER SUN AS WRAPAROUND MOISTURE LINGERS OVR THE REGION. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE AMOUNT OF RAIN & POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS AR...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL SOUTHERN AR
AREAS...STRONG WINDS WITH THE SURFACE LOW WITH LAKE WIND OR WIND
ADVISORY...THEN ANY LINGERING WINTRY WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF AR LATE SUNDAY. HAVE I LEFT ANYTHING OUT?

RAIN...SHOWERS & ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED ACROSS AR THIS
MORNING TO AFTERNOON...AS THE FIRST BATCH OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
PUSHES ACROSS AR. HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTH PARTS OF THE
STATE WITH 0.5 TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES...TO A FEW TENTHS CENTRAL...
WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OVER NORTHERN SPOTS. WARM FRONT ALONG THE
LA/AR STATE LINE IS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN MUCH RICHER AIR &
INSTABILITY SOUTH...TO DRIER & MORE STABLE AIR NORTH. THE UPPER LOW
WAS OVER FAR WEST TX & ROTATING ENERGY TO CENTRAL TX TO WEST TO
CENTRAL OK. SPC WATCH OUT FOR THE AREA. CLOUDS & PRECIP HAS HELD
TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW & SURFACE LOW TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING...& MOVES
EAST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT & ON SUNDAY...SEVERAL THREATS WILL
AFFECT THE CWA. FIRST THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED MORE OVER EAST
OK & E TX WITH MAX MOISTURE INFLUX...LIFT & INSTABILITY. WHILE
OVER AR...AREAS COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES...WITH A SOME SPOTS RECEIVING HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST & SOUTH. AT THIS TIME...A POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE FOR SOME W TO SW PARTS OF AR. BUT FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS AROUND 3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...& AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
SEE THAT TYPE OF WIDESPREAD EVENT...ESPECIALLY AS SOUTHERN STORMS
OVER E TX & LA WILL TAPPER AWAY SOME MOISTURE. ALSO...SOME ISOLATED
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF AR AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS EAST...& JET DYNAMICS & LIFT MAX OUT. TIME FRAME FOR AR
WOULD BE LATE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY MORNING. IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN
MOVE A BIT MORE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN AR...THEN A BETTER THREAT
COULD BE SEEN...BUT AGAIN MAIN THREAT WILL BE OVER SPC MODERATE
AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER SE TX TO LA. WITH THESE STORMS GOING
UP...ENERGY WOULD BE LOST FOR AR STORMS. THEN AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
E-NE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE & WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STARTING AROUND 00Z TONIGHT FOR ALL OF AR...UNTIL 00Z MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX OVER FAR NORTHERN AR COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME...A LOW CHANCE IS
ONLY CONSIDERED & WILL HOLD OFF WITH ANY ADVISORIES. OTHERWISE...
MODEL TEMPS RUNNING TO WARM & HAVE UNDER CUT THEM BY A FEW DEGREES
IN MOST SPOTS. MONDAY & TUESDAY WILL SEE MAINLY A COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WESTERLIES WILL BE FLOWING ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING WITH
THEM SEVERAL SHOTS OF ENERGY IN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE WILL COME NEARLY AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
AND IT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE OVER
RUNNING A BOUNDARY IN OUR VICINITY AND PRODUCING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF LULLS IN THE
RAIN...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO TAKE POPS OUT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPS WILL FROM JUST BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
745 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
745 PM CST SAT FEB 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
BY LATE TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO ARKANSAS
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING LIKELY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ONE
THIRD OF ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A WALDRON...LITTLE
ROCK TO DE WITT LINE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE
GULF COAST WHERE IT WILL BE WARMER AND THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH ONE TO
TWO INCHES LIKELY. SOME AREAS COULD PICK UP TWO TO THREE INCHES OF
RAIN. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IT WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH RAIN
LINGERING IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS. PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY END BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN PLACES.

BENIGN WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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