Drought in Tennessee, April 1 to 30, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
858 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. WILL ADJUST
POPS/WX THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
&&

.DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DRIVE ACROSS CNTRL
AR/SE MO/SRN IL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT AND UPR LVL S/W
TRACKING ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...PRE-
FRONTAL ENERGY/ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN MS/WRN TN HAS SPARKED
A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NW ALABAMA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EAST OF I-65...INFLUENCE OF COOLER/MORE
STABLE WEDGE AIRMASS EXISTS...AND EXPECT THIS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH LATEST TEMPS RANGING FROM ABOUT
57F IN FT PAYNE TO 64F IN MUSCLE SHOALS.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM ERN IA/NRN IL...COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST...
VERY CLOSE TO A NASHVILLE /KBNA/ TO MEMPHIS /KMEM/ LINE BY 12Z/TUE.
EJECTING UPR LVL ENERGY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION/LOW LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SUSTAIN SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-65 AND SRN MIDDLE TN. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/MAINLY WEST OF I-65/ WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLD TS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT ANYTHING STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND A BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE OVER AR/MO/IL WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS IT PUSHES INTO A MORE STABLE/WEAKER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. BUT REMNANTS OF THIS LINE WILL CATCH UP WITH ANY
PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY TO MAKE FOR A GENERALLY WET MORNING COMMUTE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. NADLER.83
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON/...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWFA TMRW AFTN...AND WHILE THE FORCING/MOISTURE
REMAIN RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE...BELIEVE ALMOST EVERYONE SHOULD SEE
AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND HAVE INCREASED POPS AGAIN.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE SLOWLY-IMPROVING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE TOUGH TO GAGE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED PREFRONTAL CONDITIONS...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WAA
DESPITE THE CLOUDS/PCPN TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WENT WITH A BLEND FOR LOWS TMRW NIGHT SINCE THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CAA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE QUIET DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT TO THE
SOUTH. WITH MOST OF THE CAA OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTH...TEMPS
SHOULD WARM NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS SOME INITIAL INCONSISTENCY WITH HOW MUCH PCPN WILL FALL AS
THE FRONT QUICKLY RETREATS NWD AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT FEEL MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT GETS
DRIVEN BACK SEWD ONCE AGAIN. ENS/GFSX MOS DATA SHOWS THIS PD AS
HAVING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES...BUT NOT COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS
SOLN...SINCE THE FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WITH
SOME OF THESE RECENT FROPAS. HAVE GONE WITH TAPERED NW-SE POPS THURS
NIGHT...AND BROAD LIKELY POPS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. SOME PCPN
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
BE CLEARED UP FOR THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...MED-RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT-ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO WITH THE GFS FOR MOST DETAILS.

THE MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS APART HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 7. HOWEVER THE SAT AFTN-MONDAY PERIOD SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

PREV DISC...BCC
EVNG UPDT...DJN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1026 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-011000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1026 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST ALABAMA
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 AM. THOUGH THE LINE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THE
TIME IT REACHES THIS AREA...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH FOLLOWED BY
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN
BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
TO 30 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS IN THESE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG...DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WOULD BE SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DJN